| The Australian car industry will be rocked by the closure of more car dealerships and finance companies as more pressure goes onto the Rudd labor government's car financing rescue in concert with the banks. One of the major car manufacturers will announce it is quitting Australia. Over the next three to six months the US dollar will drop sharply by between 6% and 12%. The Australian dollar will also fall. It may go below $US0.50 cents. The Chinese Yuan will apprecite making their exports dearer. They will turn inwards to ward off a domestic famine and reaction. Another major US bank will fail as housing in the US, Australia and elsewhere plummets in value. An Australian bank will be exposed to bad debts above its published provisions. Unemployment in Australia will rise to 7% in march and move upwards. Interest rates will falter as Reserve bank becomes unsure what to do. The Australian state of Victoria will suffer a budget deficit rather than a surplus as proclaimed by the Premier John Brumby. Kevin Rudd's climate change ETS will be rejected, on mass, by industry and the Australian community. The price of water and electricity will rise in all states and territories. The infrastructure fund will struggle and the awarding of such projects will not generate employment or economic stability. The Australian Future Fund will suffer losses in its funds management. Australia's growth, and that of thew orld, will decline to the negative. There will be no economic growth for eighteen months or two years in any economy and this may extend out to five years. The states of New York and california will file for banruptch. The world's three largest economies are in major decline and Silicon Valley will be reduced dramatically through many company failures. In India the information technology industry driving that economy will be shunned by clients as more corruption is exposed. Microsoft, Apple and Dell along with Google and Yahoo, Amazon and the giants of the web and I world will falter and their profits decline dramatically. A tellecommunications company will fail causing the federal government broadband tender complications. The government will react with more hostility to Telstra and the stripping of the telecommunications backbone from their control will move to becoming a reality. Telstra's shares will decline to below $A3.00. Qantas shares will decline as will many other Australian corporate icons. An Australian university and a number of Tafe Colleges will post losses causing a severe problem for their respective state governments. One regional Ausralian university will fail rquiring a government bail out which will be resisted. Those universities moving to US style study programmes for under graduate courses will suffer a decline in student enrollments. The labor education revolution will be affected by this university failure reducing funds available to other Australian universities. |
| Australia's banks are not all that forthcoming about their status and particularly their exposure to calamity for example sub prime and securitised instruments. Not all four big banks (National Australia, Commonwealth, Wespac and Australia and New Zealand Bank are surely not all in the same rosy situation. Is one of them keeping something from us? We will know very soon which it is and what it is. Could it be the Board, and management, fear a response from consumers, or a political reaction under the Australian government deposit gaurantee? Are all of the Australian banks operating their loan books to the full capacity or is one, or more, not lending all that much? Is the economy being oiled by the Australian government and not by the banks as well? |
| A revaluation of China's currency, rent revaluations in Australia and the over-rating of the capabilities of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the impact of monetary policy Some years ago, Senator and federal Minister Nick Sherry went through a dark patch in his life. He recovered and went on to become a federal Minister in the Rudd Labor government. The Senator is responsible for the vital portfolio that covers superannuation. It is not clear why he is qualified to hold this portfolio since he has not demonstrated a demonstrable vision, let alone an understanding of the criticality of the role that super plays in the economic landscape of Australia beyond providing money for retirement. Nick Sherry is a member of the tribe that openly reviled, and dismissed, Paul Keating's blue print for Australia's future using superannuation as the pivotal tool. Following the defeat of the Keating labor government a spineless, and decrpeit labor party, cowered when anyone barke at them. They were, and are a sad lot. Perhaps Bill Kelty alone is the epitome of loyalty. He was, and is, like Keating, a deep critical thinker. That is abnormal in Australian politics and society in general. There is a myth that the Australian voter is sophisticated in their political assessment. That is simply rot. Barely 5% of the nation's population creates everlasting and beneficial change. There are dills earning large amounts of money on all sides of politics, business and community. They occupy positions of power, and influence, and some (like John Howard and peter Costello) do ever lasting damage, no matter how the spin doctors and acquiescent media dress up history. When John Howard broke his promise to migrate the current system above an employer required 9% contribution, Nick Sherry and his labor colleagues were mute. Not every employer contributes. The employer contribution is not only mandated in awards. All other employers put it in as part of the annual monetary (salary) package. A lot of people are funding the compulsory contribution themselves up front. As the private sector debt ballooned, Howard and Costello played the entrenched promotion of political self interest, and political bile and bastardry, ahead of the public interest. Despite their crude efforts, and the lack of will of the labor party to challenge them, industry super funds blossomed. Vested interests, ably supported by the liar spin doctors (parasites) of the public purse that inhabit Ministers offices, tried desperately to destroy the foundation of Keating and Bill Kelty's creation - compulsory contributed superannuation. When Nick Sherry was spokesperson, before the Rudd government came to power, he did little to challenge this bastardry of the power collective. He really is a poor performer hidden away in the government spin doctor machinery. One trillion dollars of investment potential was created in a little over decade. It might have been $1.5 trillion if not for the myopia of Howard and his Treasurer. As Howard and Costello trumpeted their attack on public sector debt, in the back room $A600,000,000,000 shackled the nation. Howard came to office on the back of the foolishness of the Reserve bank of Australia which put interest rates up, crippling growth. Bill Kelty, a member of the RBA, during Keating's Prime time as Prime Minister, opposed the interest rate rise. Today history may judge him as the most intelligent member of that Reserve Bank of Australia, Board. The RBA is given to much credence, and pumping up, by politicians and an unenquiring media. The sport of predicting a new rate movement has become the primary motivation of commentators. They, the RBA, totally failed to anticipate the financial tsunami set out below in this web site. Perhaps even more critical, for the nation, they (the RBA, the labor party, media, commentators and most of the voting population) failed to grasp, comprehend and embrace, Paul Keating's vision, just as Nick Sherry appears to have failed to grasp the importance of the level of contribution to superannuation. All that Rudd has is the surplus and that is in itself fictional too. Sherry and the labor government need to come to terms with the criticality of the balance between savings and consumption. When to save and when to spend. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd may have been gullibly sucked into spending $A10 billion of the public's money on a Christmas splurge. The current (false) assumption is that the economy can be saved by spending. The second (false) assumption is that there can be constant growth. The third is that monetary policy is a panacea tool to rectifying problems and changing behaviour or at least modifying it. Altering the cash rate is tinkering and the amount of interest (monthly payments) by home buyers, and its effect on the economy, is over stated and definitely over emphasised. Treasurer Wayne Swan may yet turn out to be a hidden visionary, grasping knowledge of the more complex issues that his colleague Minister Sherry does not demonstrate. The employee contribution into superannuation must increase. It must increase in 2009 and soon. It must go to 10% immediately and then to 12% and to 15% and then 25% by end of 2010. The proposition that the nation cannot afford this is a demonstrable lack of understanding of the facets of the real economy and a failure in complex thinking and analysis. Federal Treasury, under Ken Henry, is not a shining example of critical, lateral and visionary thinking. The media and analysts have not picked up on the mediocrity of his stewardship of Treasury and the constant failure to accurately predict. Politicians, and bureaucracy, is a self interested club in which the media (press gallery) are willing and complicit players. Let us observe if the Prime Minister has the fortitude to challenge the club and break from past practice. Nick Sherry cannot be left in charge if superannuation unless he offers an intelligent vision and plan. In the near future China will revalue its currency. It must turn inward, quickly, to domestic investment and stop selling cheap (exchange manipulated) exports on the world market. If it does not then its people will suffer and many may even starve. There is growing unrest. The revaluing will cause a major problem for Australia (particularly commodities) not to mention the rest of the world. The proposition that India, and China, are the power houses of the future that can shield Australia (even the world) is another myth peddled by experts. There will be a revaluation of rents in Australia as property values fall, quite dramatically. They will not fall by 6% as some forecast but in some areas by 10% and in other areas property will plummet, in February and March 2009, by 25% perhaps, in some localities, more. A large number of real estate agents (2,000+) and financial planners (3,000+) will lose their jobs. |
| I predict that Sol will not be at the helm of Telstra once the expert panel delivers its assessment of the tenders lodged to build the federal government's national broad band network. He claims that the door is open for Telstra to go back and negotiate its position having been kicked out of the tender process. It seems that the Board, the CEO, senior managers of Telstra and maybe its legal advisers are not conversant with how serious the public servants take the rules of probity and the integrity of the Australian government tendering processes. There will be no future negotiations to involve Telstra in the tender and ultimate contract to build the network. The CEO, and the Board, have set Telstra on a path that will probably result in the telco's domination of the market being broken by the government. If liberal Senator Nick Minchin tries to blame the Minister with hs hollow rhetoric and drivel, about how Telstra has to be involved, then he will be open to questioning as to the previous government's handling of Telstra, running with their tails between their legs. Then there is the matter, and record, of his own performance in government, as Minister for Industry and Science. He was the driving force of the Howard government's Light Metals Strategy (2002), a high cost, high profile marketing spin by the government which turned out be mostly piss and win, but which cost the Australian and Queennsland governments, the CSIRO and shareholders a large amount of money and credibility. This strategy was founded on the theory that magnesium was the metal of the future and that Australia would become a major player in the global market. The government publicly backed the Queensland magnesium proponent and listened to the fortune tellers within CSIRO, the private sector and the Department. The ten Minister for Science, Peter McGauarn, was not so gullible. |
| What is the basis of the deterioration of logic, and skill, that is appearing within the Boards, and management, of corporations, enterprise and governments, within Australia and it seems, generally, across the globe? |
| Strategy of giving the low income earners a cool $A10 billion to spend for Christmas will fail So what will happen when the money arrives in the bank accounts of the recipients? Well they will spend, and shock horror, a thousand retail outlets will still close across Australia, a multi dozen of car dealers will still close and thousands of people will still be out of jobs in early 2009. The experts at the helm of the major enterprises and the Australian government Treasury have demonstrated the limits of their skills. Everyone is a champion in the power collective of government, and business, when all is well. Then when it all goes to hell they are still champions, and experts, to be listened to. |
WILL DRIVE THE NATION INTO RECESSION There are senior decision makers and experts in Australia and a large percentage of the population who are going along as if nothing major is going to happen to the nation or to them. As at November 2008, the Australian labor government of Kevin Rudd, based on Treasury analysis and advice, predicts a growth rate for Australia into the coming quarter and into next year at 2%. I say it will be 1.2% and perhaps -0.9% by end of January, going into March 2009. Let us see who is right. Look below in this web site and determine your opinion. The spiral downwards, in Australia, will continue into the middle of 2009. It will have its greatest impact between january 2009 and August 2009. Property values will dive, rentals crumble, repossessions and defaults will rise. The Members Equity Bank will suffer a negative perception, and may require an injection of funds. Up to 10% of mining projects in Western Australia will be shelved and some will simply run out of cash. The warfare manufacturing ship building industry in South Australia, and car manufacturing generally, in South Australia and Victoria will stumble, despite the federal government's subsidies to both industries. Will it be 40 of the Australian car dealerships that will fail between December 2008 and May 2009 or will it be 100? What will the government do gaurantee car finance if procured via a bank or agreed financial institution? Will it be only 15 retail chains that collapse or will it be many more? How many advertising agencies, and media corporations, will disappear? Would you like to name the two? What proportion of the ABC Learning Group's operations will the federal government be forced to buy to keep child care facilities available? Ms Sally Ann Atkinson said that "it is bizarre" that there could be loss making entities within the ABC learning Group, of which she is the former Chairman, when the governmnet provides subsidies. She was oblivious to this occurrence. How many other well paid and respected persons are as oblivious to reality in their business sphere? How many nursing, and aged care, residential enterprises will collapse? Will it be twenty child care centres, 36 or 52? Will it be five aged care facilities or eleven? Who is calculating these likely events, and working on strategies and counter activities, inside government? The federal Treasury? Spare me they can barely analyse how much money the government gets in let alone anything beyond the walls of their myopic vision. What is their plan? Spend like hell. Dr. Ken Henry, the Canberra based head of the Department of Treasury, is working on a new taxation model. Well that may well be the only worthwhile expertise available from the federal agency. The climate change model put out by them in November 2008 is laughable and a fiction. Yet the relevant Ministers, Penny Wong and Peter Garrett carry on as if this is a credible piece of analysis and the Emmissions Trading Scheme they envisaged last year wil actually be relevant in 2010 yet alone be up and running. It will not be, just like Stephen Conroy's grand plan for broadband will also not be up and running any time soon. In fact the tenderers will call it a day and walk away. The $A4.5 billion contribution from government is now valued at about half via the falling exchange rate. The surplus is rapodly disappearing. The education revolution? Not now, and not during this current term of the Rudd government. There is no revolution, the claim made by the Prime Minister that he would institute a revolution was just rhetoric and a grandiose exaggeration for the purposes of electioneering. It is part of a canvas that now maps a tendency for verbose, sometimes empty rhetoric that might well be delivered in a few hundred words or perhaps by remaining silent. Do not look to the opposition parties, in Australia's governments, for better performance, for they are as devoid of ideas and solutions. How much is fraud on medicare, the Australian health system, welfare and other government funded programmes? Probably $A4 billion plus, a year, I would estimate. This will come the public's notice in 2009. The Treasurer Wayne Swan looks, and behaves, like a man out of his depth. There are no real ideas other than spend and a nebulous regulation theory. Already the international banks, that have greedily soaked up taxpayers funds are telling their staff, customers and nations as a whole that the respective governments will have no operational say in their business. George Bush says that regulation failures in the USA did not cause this situation. He has a mirror of incompetence here in Australia called the New South wales government. The downward driver of Australia's growth rate will be the incompetent, and dangerous, labor government of NSW under the stewardship of Premier Nathan Rees and Treasurer, Eric Roozendaal. This miserable government still has three yaers to run. These two, and their cabinet coleagues, are about to take NSW into a landslide of economic diasater and in doing so will take the nation with them. Roozendall bables on about AAA ratings for the state as if they are worth anything or mean anything. He is living in the past. |
Some Australian corporation's morals, and ethics, may be questionable. Woolworths is Australia's most pervasive retail chain. In the week of October 21, 2008 it was advertising its new credit card. Woolworths is offering an interest free period to February 2009 on all purchases. Just prior to this the Prime Minister had announced that the Australian governnment would make a single funding distribution of some $10,000,000,000 to pensioners, and families, just prior to Christmas. I have an expectation that a large amount of that money will flow through Woolworth's cash registers. At a time when a major economic crisis approaches Australia Wollworth's is callously enticing Australians into further credit card debt, timed for Christmas. There has been a significant increase in the commitment of annual net income to paying credit card debt in Australia. At the same time the National Australia Bank is issuing a new NAB - Qantas Frequent Flyer credit card. How many credit cards do indebted Australians need? One wonders at the sensitivity of these two major Australian enterprises and their role in the future of the nation's economic, and financial, propserity? I prefer other places to spend my money. On Saturday 14 October 2008 a woman, and her husband, bid for a house in Melbourne. They pay $A30,000 above the vendor's expectation. They made the decision to spend an additional thirty grand ($A30,000) because the Reserve bank had reduced interest rates by 1% and they had heard there would be more cuts. To my mind they made a bad call. Australia's propery is way over priced and there will be a major correction of differing variations across Australia in 2009 and 2010. Real estate agents across the countrty are still clinging to a dream, now fading, that the prices people have paid for houses in Australia reflect value and are the benchmark upon which to go forward as if nothing bad is, or will be, happening. Hosuing purchases are nbeing made at some 7 times median annual income and the agents think that can be sustained? The houses sold in the past two, to three years, are overpriced between to my reckoning at between 25% and 60%. Some in casual work or in unskilled employment are very worried. Those employed in manufacturing and low skiled jobs are facing a declining employment market. Major firms will scale back and some will fail. I estimate that about 15 retail clothing, and other product chains, candle and aromatic products chain stores, sports goods, hardware, auto mart style stores and numerous small businesses, will fail in 2009. The young professionals still think that there is a blue sky all the way forward and they have nothing to fear because they have always been able to get a job. Sydney wil be very hard hit in the professional sector. The Western Australian mining boom will stagger and a number of sun rise companies will face the evening twilight. Unemployment will rise to 6% between November 2008 and March 2009 and then continue upwards towards 10%. Foreclosures on houses will rise by 5% to 6%. Even if people who bought the houses survive the loan storm their house will be valued below what they borrowed. Not some of them, all of them. Those who renovated will find that they have over capitalised. Rents will fall in 2009. Mobile phone companies, and elecronics manufacturers, game machine makers and the home entertainment sellers all think that their sales will be maintained. The end of the love affair with technology is nigh. People will not be able to afford them. Telstra's income will fall dramatically in 2009 along with Optus and a phone company, maybe 3, will disappear from Australia. There is no economic saviour and the days of Keynes are upon us. |
(September 2008) WE WISH YOU A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAP (LESS) NEW YEAR..... A NUMBER OF AUSTRALIAN RETAIL CHAINS WILL GO TO WALL Santa Clause Kevin Rudd has cpme early. Yet as Christmas comes, and goes, in 2008 unfortunately a number of retailers will disappear in February 2009, if not sooner, as the recession hits Australia. They are the small, narrow item stock style retailers selling, among other things, the cheap Chinese clothes and trinkets. They are the discount electrical retailers. Hotels, and motels, will take beating as will the airlines. Holidays wil be close by, maybe in the caravan park or the humble cabin. Unemployment will rise. The nation's workforce is 20% casual, and 20% self employed, they will suffer first and the cascade wil begin. These are largely the electronic discounters and the cheap imported Chinese made clothing products, and other trinkets, that infest the malls of the nation. Why Australian consumers demand and buy low grade products is a behavioural science exercise in its own right. The greater volume of their purchases are junk and rubbish. Australia has too many shopping centres, and common junk chain retailers, for the size of population and the number of tourists coming to Australia each year. |
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HOW MANY AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS CAN SURVIVE?
What business (es)will Wesfarmers jettison?
Even if a large numner of people spends the government's largesse at Bunnings and Coles over Christmas, how much cash flow is being generated, into Wesfarmers, that it can sustain a $A1.2 billion dollar debt? With coal, and resources, in decline what business is the cash cow? Coles, and Bunnings, with the latter being the better source of funds? No single financial institution will front the necessary funds when the refinancing is due in 2009. Will there be a consortia of twenty six financial institutions and at what price? maybe a hege fund but tey are on the nose. Bunnings may have to go or Coles, maybe both. Alternatively Wesfarmers could sell a mine. In any event Wesfarmers has run into a narrow pathway leading to a precipice. The question is how long before they go over? -
The New Kings of the World Are Not Microsoft and Google
The End of Vapour Ware
Are you selling cheap Chinese junk? If you are find a new product and supplier. Is your business based on the continued dominance of the Internet? is it a mobile communications provider business with a focus on downloads from the net? If so think again.
My clients importing goods, and services, were advised (September 3, 2008) to adjust their FX rates down to 0.60 cents, as the Australian dollar would plummet.
The Japanese Yen will be the major beneficiary of the financial crisis. George Bush cannot save America and nor can Barak Obama, this spells the end of the current US empire and its ascendancy over others. It will no doubt rise again. China is not the saviour of the world economy. Antipathy towards China will grow quickly. Its products will be shunned by consumers. The change agent is Japan. It is awakening from a deep sleep. Russia is a nation steeped in corruption and engaged in the recreation of the cold war. The Russia banking system is being masked by the government. The United Kingdom is going to take the place of America as the leading financial centre of the world along with Japan. The Eurpean Community union is cracked and will take years to mend. There will be calls to abandon the Euro as nations go their own way again.
Wall Street has lost not only its lustre but also its credibility. Expect tech stocks and companies such as Google, Yahoo and web based vapourware to suddenly plummet. The internet will lose its domination of stock values. There will be a move to traditional industries and conservative investments. -
RESERVE BANK CAN ONLY USE INTEREST RATE CUTS WITH EXTREME CARE
The utility of monetary policy will be well and truly blunted
Treasury's forecasts as previously predicted are rubbery and wrong.
The Australian government is becoming less strident in its demands that banks pass on any cuts to the cash rate in Australia that may be made by Australia's Reserve Bank (October 2008). The Opposition party is demanding that the full cut be passed on. This is opportunistic twaddle and belies an underlying problem. The question arises what is the purpose of cutting rates to boost consumption, and spending, in a climate of huge personal credit card debt and low savings? How much more can consumers buy? Nevertheless the instruments of management in the modern free market world are usually "monetary policy". They become Keynesian when it suits the administration of the United States. The nation itself is like a gaggle of politicians. Changing to suit their own needs and the world can go hang.
Australia typically stays pure. Astralia hpnours its deals, and plays the free trade agreement game whilst the USA and others do not. The USA is both greedy and opportunistic. The ethics and morality oof this nation's power collective are on full display. Our farmers do the right thing and suffer. So is it that the Reserve Bank of Australia will apply conventional thinking. They are more likely to cut big in the current crisis (October 2008) rather than the middle 0.50%. The experts and the pundits wioll all be startled. The media will express shock, surprise and all gasp that no one predicted this.
Read the material in this site. They are mediocre in their assessmenst but as a club they close ranks and support their own members and versions of the truth. What if the bank reduced the cash rate by 0.75% or even 1.0%. They probably will make a cut in this range. There will be a clamour that no one knew or would guess such a transaction.
If we are reducing cash rates to stimulate housing then what about an over priced market. If we are doing it for business then there is question as to the cost of funds for import versus export industries. We buy too much low grade product from China. The retailers selling this garbage should be out of business since they operate on a subsistence basis with cheap casual labour. The exchange rate plays a major role in how our businesses perform. Imports are dearer so why are we importing so much of poor quality? To assuage a gluttonous cheap consumer.
The liberals under John Howard and Peter Costello implemented superannuation incentives whereby savings were placed in funds that have now declined in value on a great scale and not in banks. They robbed ones sctor, the banks of deposits, to appease their constituents, and in doing so placed them in peril. They should have adopted Keating's 15% mandated superannuation contribution in their early yaers. They too, were 9are) conventional, even mediocre, in their policy reform, processes and thinking.
The political rhetoric of the two major parties, has focused on "working families" under the influence of spin doctors whose focus was on winnin g elections and not on reality. The politicians also focused on "house hold mortgages" holders and yet these class of consumers are not the dominant demographic in Australia. Two thirds of the population do not have mortgages. A large slice of the population are not working families.
The population of Australia is aging. The people with cash are not spending nor are they now putting the excess into superannuation. They are looking for safe havens that pay interest. Thus savings accounts are important. Banks need savings when they cannot get inter bank credit and also to reduce their costs and imprive their overall business. Thus the Reserve Bank has to find the fine line balance. When does one stop cutting the cash rate? Now, for the stimulus wil be wasted.
When will the silent majority of "non orking families" and those who do not ahve debt be no longer silent demanding that the cash rate instead be raised? This quandery will be addressed in early 2009 when the nation feels the full impact of the global recession. It will come when land and house values plummet across the board. Meanwhile in Australia between October, and December, 2008 real spending will decline and a large number of retailers will go to the wall and out of business. The "never have experienced bad times" younger generation will find that many of them are out of a job and/or bankrupt. -
NO PAID MATERNITY LEAVE FOR AUSTRALIA ANYTIME SOON
The Minister for Families. Ms Jenny Macklin, in the Australian parliament, has expressed joy over the Australian Productivity Commission's proposition for eighteen weeks paid maternity leave. The Prime Minister is supportive. Under the proposal business pays eighteen weks maternity leave to the mother and two weeks to the father. The money is recovered by the tax system from the government. Business also pays the 9% superannuation levy. Thus busines has to fund the scheme in the first instancea nd ten recover the money later except for the super payment which they foot.
The Minister's euphoria will turn to sorrow in 2009 when she becomes aware that the Rudd (cabinet) government will not put such a sheme into law due to the problems created by the financial system meltdown and the damage resulting to the Australian economy. The Productivity Commission has been sidelined by the Prime Minister on major social, and economic issues, since he came to power so there is no indication that it carries any influence. In any event the financial crisis will deepen and create a fundamental economic barrier to such a socialist dream coming to fruition. Ms Macklin opught to know better than talk up such propositions with fullsome, and effusive, rhetoric. Ms Macklin is a hard working, and competent, Minister who should enjoy better support for her efforets and policy thinking. - There will be no fully functioning, and complete,
emissions trading scheme (ETS) in place in Australia by 2010. Popular support for Climate Change, and the Rudd proposed ETS (emissions trading scheme),
will wane from October 2008 as
opponents gear up to create barriers and the economic climate in Australia deteriorates.
Has the Rudd government identified the raft of hidden influences that inform and alter public opinion. These are not just corporate interests. They are also individuals of varying and divergent motivations.
The Australian banking system will come under severe strain in October 2008 and during the latter months of 2008. One of the banks suffers stress which will become a significant political issue in 2009. The Federal government, despite flaying Malcolm Turnbull for suggesting a fund be established to buy securities, will do just that. Ostensibly the argument will be put that the Tresaurer, Wayne Swan, has done it to buy high value securities. More likely it is there to provide a life line to a floundering financial institution. The Australian Tresaurer continues to create doubts in the business world regarding his ability to performa and create innovative solutions.
A blind aceptance of (US head of treasury) Henry Paulson's bail out plan for the US system, by Prime Minister Rudd, without having considered the scope, and definition of what was proposed, will haunt him. His embrace of the plan leaves him somewhat on a limb when the Congress does not come on board to accept the proposal.
Mr. Rudd's vocal support will create a question around his perception, and candour, about how connected he is internationally, what he knows and how he can deal with a financial crisis of the dimesnions Australia will experience. The US power colective has embraced their own perceptions as to their infallibility wityh gusto. The venal belief that property, shares and a meery go round of complicated financing and lkeveraging will always be on the up. The big end of town in the USA is branded as seeking to look after themselves through the bail out. Mr. Paulson is a former Wall Streeet financier from Goldman Sachs. The credibility and respect is dominished. Mr. Ben Bernanke the head of the US federal reserve is lacking the stature to drive the medicine through the political barriers. A presidential election looms and pay back is on politician's minds. The American people are not simply skeptical they are totally disbleieving and lacking trust.
In Australia the mass population embraced the belief that property values would always rise. That they could fund lavish borrowings on interest only terms through an ever rising market. The access to easy credit to buy the latest gadget and the youth inexperience and naivety (having never lived through a down turn - jobs alaways available) combine in a storm.
At first it was thought that only the poorer, and less economically, well off regions would suffer declines. Not so. The bubble bursts in every suburb, rich and poor. In Australia, mortgage defaults will rise in the Sydney suburbs, in Wollongong and Newcastle. Regional towns will be affected. In Western Australia, mainly in Perth, and in parts of Melbourne suburbia there will be a fall in market values and major ructions in working families' lives. In the Northern Territory investment in new housing property is still climbing. There is a belief that protection against economic calamity is offered via the ever growing Australian military presence and the new gas project. It is not clear yet whether this is the case. The federal government's budget will not achieve the level of inflows predicted by Treasury and the surplus will be greatly affected. Taxes will rise in 2009 at federal and state level. Alternatively an argument will be put to increase the Goods and Services Tax to 15% I would think this push for increase would begin about March 2009.
CHINA STUMBLES - FINAL QUARTER OF 2008
The property and stock markets will stumble dramatically in China as the growth pahse slows dramatically from October 2008. This will catch the resources industry and major trading nations by surprise. It will also cause trouble for Australians investing in developing trade and business in China. The down turn wil cause a commodity fall and also a significant impact on states relying upon iron ore and coal trade (Western Australia, Queensland NSW). Western Australia will have severe budgetary problems as will New South Wales and Queensland. The increase prices demanded, from China's steel factories, by international resources companies will act against them and they will not get the volume that they think they will in the next twelve months. China will reduce its purcahses and move imports from a wide range of providers to a narrow band of cheaper suppliers, reshaping world markets. The dragon will slumber and then go to sleep. - Malcolm Turnbull, opposition leader in the Australian federal parliament, will whittle away Kevin Rudd's lead in the polls. Mr. Turnbull's skill as a banker, and an orator, will place him ahead of Treasurer, Wayne Swan, in credibility resulting in Mr Swan's removal from the Treasury portfolio in the early 2009. A dramatic event in th Australian financial scene and an abandonment of support for Kevin Rudd, in climate change, will cause extreme political danger, and reshuffle of the labor cabinet in mid 2009. The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will be shackled by his own reliance on the need for enquiry and examination before any decision can be made or any risk can be taken. The public service bureaucrat is not well known for intuitive judgement and risk adoption.
- The end of the Della Bosca and Neal dynasty. NSW labor government
Minister John Della Bosca and federal member Belinda Neal's influence with the
state, and federal labor parties, will end in October 2008. John Della Bosca is currently (September 2008) Minister for Education in the
Australian state of New South Wales. It is not clear what qualifies him for this important role.
The Australian labor party, at every level, political and branch, most obviously in New South wales, and their advisers and employees, may benefit from undertaking classes in ethics
Belinda Neal, particularly seems to have a problem with telling the truth, in the federal parliament, when she denied making statements about a liberal member's baby becoming a "demon". It was according to Neal an issue of interpretation. THis is even after the microphone's picked up her exact words. She claims a lack of judgement. Rather Ms Neale might reflect on morals, and character, that a politician in government and indeed in parliament, might aspire to rather than judgement. Unfortunately the greater number of Australian politicians, and more particularly labor, may confuse the term poor judgement with what they really reflect and that is poor ethics and a lack of moral compass. The self importance of the politician, so obvious in modern Australian politics, demonstrable in the behaviour of Ms Neale, and others, such as Western Australia's Troy Boswell, now the government Treasurer, exceeds the public interest of having such people in parliaments. But democrracy is a double edged sword and Ms Neal represents who she represents. This demographic of voter has a right to representation regardless. Ms Neale thinks she will be the preseelected candidate for labor in the federal seat of Robertson. I do not believe that this will be the case. - The financial collapse of American capitalism proceeds at apace. As indicated below there are more banks to fall and major lenders and industry will crumple. Wall Street will come under close scrutiny. In Australia a bank will strumble if not fall of neither the Reserve bank nor the federal government can countenance such an event. The blind trust of Treasurer Wayne Swan and Assistant Treasurer Chris Bowen, in the Reeserve bank and the rating agencies that grant AAA ratings to banks demonstrates questionable judgement. There is going to be a recession but not of the same type as the Great Depression. This will hit hard in December 2008 and early 2009. The labor federal government will be caught unable to respond and wayne Swan's tenure as Treasurer wil end, around March 2009 if not sooner.
- (September 2008) Bye bye Morris! In NSW the end of Morris Iemma is nigh. Along with him is Reba Meagher as Health Minister and Michale Costa as Treasurer. The Premier will be toppled by the number kings Tripodi and Obeid. these two are the faces of a corrupt, and coroded, labor party. Privatisation of the power industry is the catalyst. John Robertson, of Unions NSW, another player in the tawdry labor party is slated to enter the Upper House. This is how the labor party treats the people of NSW, wioth utter contempt. Public office and parliamentary membership is a patronage system. The opposition leader barry O'Farrell will lose what little credibility he may have now in the coming months and the liberal party will have its own rout.
- In the first week of September 2008 the voters in Western Australia will demonstrate the growing disenchantment with the two major parties. I exhort the readers of these web sites in Western Australia to send the two major parties a message, which they probably will not actually get. The National party is always being written off by the pundits. They are bizarre toom often in their demands and reading of how things really are. The boom in Western australia is cream mainly for the federal government which rips the states off. The Greens apparently are on the rise. There is only one certainty the people of Australia have little choice in quality politicians and quality government. Western Australia and NSW are examples in point. No matter the outcome the leaders of the parties will spin it. Alan Carpenter, and his mates, are not as sharp as they tthink they are and the liberals are the same. They are a laughable lot and not in a funny, entertaining sense. The voting system, in Australia, tends to favour major parties to the disadvantage of those the people might want to vote for. The parliaments of the nation are not representaative of electorates. I say even stevens over there, hung on their own petards. Someone unexpected will have the final say as to who is in government. Hardly worth commenting on, but not as corrupt as NSW.
- What a piece of work the NSW labor party is. A tyrannical trade unionist, John Robertson, calls the tune, whilst playing a significant role in steering NSW towards the bankruptcy. He has demonstrated a gross lack of ecomomic evaluation capability. An inability to see the outcome of his actions and decisons. So many trade union leaders in the nation, particularly among the under educated sgements of their membership are of this ilk. They hold the nation back. he is an ideological thug in terms of politics with little credibility in intellectual assessment of how the state should be governed. having a brain, and skills, for rising, and maintaining, power within the NSW labor party is probably a pointer to a future of failure in government and representation. Labor members in the parliament, Tripodi, and Obeid, may be other examples. He is destroying the peoples' democracy and is set to get a place in the upper house of parliament. He probably will get a minitsry too, demonstrating how vile the party is. What a rotten system this is. Health Minister Reba Meagher, should have been turfed ages ago, and Premier Morris Iemma and Treasurer Micahel Costa may as weell quit. The parliamentart members are a discgraceful lot who havev their snouts well and truly in the public trough and their own political interests, like the Della Bosca family, before the hapless voters. The most talented is the Ms Carmel Tebbut,, wife of federal member Anthony Albanese,but she will not get a go for the leadership in this mysogynist political sewer. This state is not a joke in terms of government it is a sad, sad indictment of the Australian laborn party and the liberal party as well. The rubbish over privatisation of the power industry ensures that the people of NSW will not get services and infrastructure and will be saddled with people chosen by the faceless labor party apparatchiks of Sussex Street. Decrepit and parasitic politicians, and sycophantic mandarins, and many, many lazy public sector workers, are entrenched in some form of dynastic feudalistic society disengaged from real life. They all need to go. Costa's antics will cause the Imme a government to crumple in a heap as the vipers of the party bite them into political oblivion. The political talent pool is awful. I really cannot advise my clienst to do business with the government or public service, so we concentrate our efforts elsewhere. There is not much choice though. Mining, and resources, mask a woeful perfromance and no real opportunities given the lack of innovation, and abilities, of all Australian governments and public sectors. It is quite appalling and very dangerous to prosperity and future.
- In late 2008 and through 2009 - 2010 there will be a major shakeup of Australian media. Some will go broke and others will disappear. The consumers with large, disposable and discretionary, incomes are not listening to or watching commercial media in the numbers becessary to sustain the networks. The quality, and the products, are substandard.
- There will be a capital strike in Australia, curtailing investment, if the labor
government under Kevin Rudd, proceeds with its
Emmissions Trading Scheme - Carbon Reduction programme,
in its current form (August 2008). There will be no ETS
in place by 2010 as originally stated in the government's election campaign. They have modified the strict timetable
by saying it is an "aspirational" start date.
The labor government will squander economic credibility in 2008 and 2009. The experts, academics, spin doctors, and strategists,
advising the Prime Minister will be "done like a dinner" by seasoned
tacticians. Why? Simply because they do not live in the real world. They reside in a rarified atmosphere. Like shooting ducks in a gallery.
If this were not a serious set of cross roads for Australia it would be amusing and a challnge. However it is actually disppaointing and soul destroying trying to do business with the 'liberal and labor party apparatchiks and politicians and the senior \
public servants of Australia's governments. The system of governnance, the quality, and the performance of decision makers, is a barrier.
For many years now I have worked for clients who have conveyed messages, plans and ideas including significant investment proposals to governments only to have their contributions ignored. When the politicians and their chosen winners have failed, the cost to the taxpayer has been horrendous, totalling billions. Hubris, ideology and self interest are the hallmarks of governments. They are also their archilles heels. On learns lessons and I no longer care about the morality or the cost since the know all experts, and the bulk of the nation, do not. Think who has been held liable for the massive losses of peples' savings and livelihoods and who has been held accountable? - Steve Bracks, former Premier of Victoria, was contracted by the Rudd labor government to do a new car plan for Australia to 2020. The report and reccommendations are a farce for anybody whocan think and evaluate. it is a political fix at about $3,0000,000,000 of taxpayers' funds. It is not a document or strategy and pllicy to be lauded but the media, the parliaments, major political parties and the perpetual self interest of the power collective will
- August 2008: Political commentators, and sephologists, examine the political landscape daily.
There are many who would claim to be expert and few who are actually able to interpret and predict accurately.
The media analysts, and journalists, who write in the daily newspapers, are hardly experts. Anthony Green is far and away the most balanced and critical assessor.
The key attribute and abilities that journalists and polliticians give to voters that they do not possess.
The labor, and liberal, party candidates particularly at state and territory elections can be appallingly bad choices, lacking skill,
ability, and all too often a moral compass and ethical awareness. The average voter has no clue as to their representatives' persoanl
abilities and would not vote if it were optional. They are detached.
To this end, in mid 2008, there are predictions that labor will be returned handsomely in the Northern Territory, in Western Australia and in the Australian Capital Territory. The latter prediction is correct. on Stanhope is a smart, and articulate, Chief Minister in a highly educated and capable electorate. By comparison the voters of the Northern Territory possess no such comparable abilities and discerning attitudes. Thus labor will suffer a decline in its vote by between 7% and 10% ending its domination of the parliament in the Northern Territory. They will fall over the line by doing deals. The parliament will be reshaped. Not that this matters for they are an average lot. The Northern Territory government will not be able to secure the Inpex LNG project that the Chief Minister touted he could secure as one of his election promises. The Inpex project will, if it gets up in the next five years, which I personally doubt, go to Western Australia. Thus is despite the fact that the territory has an emerging gas industry of great scope.
In That state the labor party will retain government but they will be disturbed by the outcome. The liberals will gain votes even thougb they are a lack lustre lot like the labor party. - In the land of broad band, the federal Minister for Telecommunications, Mr Stephen Smithb is between a rock and hard place, He will not meet the Prime Minister's preelection deadline of broad banding the nation. He will not even achieve such a feat technically. Life goes on and abor will dance to the tune of the very smart Telstra executives who are battle hardened and of a fighting type. There are no smart typs in the public secor agency of Telecommunicatioosn and Arts since helen Williams got transferred to the (what do they actually do?) Department of Human Services. There is no tendency of the Ruddd government to bring her back? Ms Patricia Smith the current Secretary of telecommunicatioonsa dnthe Arts is not quite up to the task of duelling with Sol Trujillo and his team.
- Sometimes it appears that there is a race for one commentator, or expert, to be more outrageous than another.
Some claimed that the price of oil would reach $USD200 per barrel relatively shortly in 2008 or 2009. The price of oil will actually
drop back dramatically between July 2008 and December 2009.
Interest rates will hit 12% in Australia, in 2009, and the international credit crisis will evelope corporations beyond financial institutions.
Kevin Rudd, and his key Ministers, talk of events in 2010, 2011, 2015, 2020 and 2050 based on theoretical studies and reading crystal balls. No one talks of tommorrow or this year. We are heading for an ever increasing doom by some mythical date that no one can be held accountable for if it doews not come to pass. Numbers fly about like confetti and the governmment, and others, talk as if their version of events, or thoewry are fact. - On Climate Change the states will begin to fly from Kevin Rudd. First will be John Brumby and the state of Victoria as the Latrobe
Valley unions realise that several thousand jobs wil be wiped out there, and also at Sale and surrounds. Some 1,600, plus megawatts, of
generation from power stations are threatened.
Then NSW and Western Austrtalia will fly. The price of electricity under the Carbon Reduction Policy will increase well above 16%, to more like 30% or 50% by 2012, or before, if owners of plant need to build reduction facilities. There will be little incentive for new investment.
Governments, public services, think tanks and industry associations and academics will claim savings or costs, based on a theoretical (made up) priove for carbon and the reduction or incrase thereof. The justification number or statistics will be latered to suit. There will be increased appointments to public relations and communicatoion roles in government and industry and the spin sector ramps up. Carbon price per tonne is likely modeelled on what it costs to sequester a tonne of carbon plus some margin. This is not a real number for the geography, and other significant inputs and factors, impacts the sequester price. There will be no Carbon Reduction scheme in place by 2010 in Australia. - The Australian government will feel the effects of consumer psychology. Those who support Carbon Reductiion now will, at an unknown cost, change their minds when the full aawreness of price, lifestyle and ramifications of the ideology, hits them or they risk losing their jobs.
CLIMATE CHANGE BITES LABOR PARTY
When kevin Rudd won government he immediately made a loud promotion of his climate change credentials taking a swag of federal party Ministers and public servants and advisers to sign the Kyoto Agreement. He has two Ministers on the high profile public policy portfolio known as "climate change". Senator Penny Wong, and Peter Garrett.
On the face of Mr Rudd's bravado one might think that he sees the whole thing as somewhat complicated but relatively easy to work out. He has a methodology that he does not share. There is the Green paper and the White paper and this means something in his code of language. The whole exercise is a bureucratic systems one with a dabbling of politics intermingled.
The Labor Party policy intends to create a carbon trading market. This is an ambitious exercise and the cost of implementation, and management, will exceed $A100 billion plus in just one to two years. Where is Treasury's modelling of the cost?
The labor cabinet have no business people of experience within its ranks. They have no scientists, and engineers, and no people with experience in economics and finance beyond theory. They are not a representative cross section of the nation. Thus they fly blind on ideology which they underpin with carefully selected scientific evidence porrly communicated. Their independent expert, Professor Garnaut, has been examining options. They are fragmenting in their policy ideas and reactions.
"Climate change" has become a battle ground of spin and fifteen minutes of fame for any scientist with a theory. It is now a public relations exercise.
Peter Garrett's claim to fame is that he was once President of the Australian Conservation Foundation. This is not foundation for the complexities of energy and its foundation of economy. The government will not meet its 2010 target to roll out an emissions trading scheme. It will barely be 2015 if it comes at all. The cost of any scheme will be horrendous on the econpomy with the price of energy rising by up to 500%. This will rippled through all sectors of the economy. The Latrobe valley, brown coal power house of the Victorian economy and a major energy consortia in the nation, will stagger beneath the impost. obs will disappear and the towns be laid waste. In NSW and Queensland the black coal industry will follow suit.
The labor party will unleash the dragon of inflation and Austrlia's economy will be irreparably damaged. There will be no ETS carbon trading market in place in Australia by 2010.By - Election Time Bad for the Labor Party
Saturday 28 June 2008 and there are two by elections for parliaments. In Gippsland Victoria a federal member to be elected and in Kororoit in Victoria, a state member. The federal opposition leader, Brendan Nelson says that labor is a threat in the federal seat of Gippsland. This is rubbish. The labor party dynasty that once controlled the political fortunes of the Latrobe valley - a large energy industry sector - are fractured. The Natioonal party is in ascendancy. The National party have held this seat for something like eight decades. At the last federal election (November 2007) the National Party achieved a swing to it, against the national trend to labor, of just under 2%. In today's election they will exeed this dramatically achieving between 5% - 7%, with the Coalition getting a two party preffered vote swing above 10%, perhaps as high as 14%.
In the state seat the labor party, lead by John Brumby, will stagger to a line ball of preference votes. Their primary vote will plummet in this state labor seat.December 2007 - September 2008: WHEN MARKETS CRASH AND THE EXPERTS PREDICTIONS FAIL
In the archived sites of the Mosaic Portal, for the years 2005, and in material below in this web page, I predicted a major crash of the property and stock markets induced by rampant maket beavhiour. I predict that in 2008 the international financial system will be rocked by the exposure of cowboys engaging in selling questionable financial instruments, poor regulation and control by government security agencies and stock market exchanges.
The wonder kids of the world in technology and services and many high profile leaders in finance and industry will be shown to be lacking in the extreme. The impact will be horrendous in Australia and particularly the United States. The most vulnerable, seduced by misrepresentation of prospects, will be the worst afflicted.
In the early days of 2008 you must take your money out of property and your superannuation out of property trusts and put it into cash, gold and high value commodities. Withdraw from the schemes offered by the new breed of mmerchant bankers.Flee the financial tsunami beyond the horizon of your awareness.
Australia's imports will be cheaper in 2008, and our exports much, much dearer as our Australian exchange rate rockets against the US currency. The US currency will go into freefall in mid 2008. Petrol and diesel will rocket in price as speculators run the market.
The reliance on central banks will be tested as a theory of management of economies. The bogey hedge funds, and margin traders, will be exposed as the instruments of evil overlooked, or ignored, by regulatory agencies. Margin calls, second mortgages and the get rich pass "the debt of cards" game will engulf the world markets. Where will your superannuation go? Ever down and down.
The stock exchanges (the world's biggest casinos) and the money market traders, and greedy paper creators, will be spotlighted. Brand names will crash and America's Wall Street will experience a financial earth quake. Monetary policy is not enough to givern. Yet it will be trumpeted by governments, like Australia. Rudd and his "wet behind the wars advisers", will be shown to be impotent and will be subject to ridicule and hostility. The inner sanctum of the Prime Minister will bes ubjected to an unprecendted attack by vested interests.
The Treasurer, wayne Swan, in his election prattle, had but one word in his vocabulary - "inflation". He will demonstrate, in the first half of 2008, that he has little exoertise as to what it actually means and implies.
The labor party, in the November 2007, election told the Australian people that they could harness grocery and fuel prices. This will turn out to be a hollow promise that will eat them politically. Just as the rhoetoric on climate change will turn hollow and the labor party will be truly tested for its mettle. The leader of the Liberal party, Brendan nelson will fail as leader and be replaced but not by malcolm Turnbull nor by his deputy. The search is underway for a new leader. As it will be against Morris Iemma in NSW.
There will be no carbon trading scheme in place by 2010.
There will be a concentration on manipulating cash flow via the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy on interest rates. Banks will ignore this and move their own rates upwards to recover the massive loses of their own hubris and ignorance. The Sustralian Future Fund, established by the Howard government will, inadvertently, find itself supporting banks via the Reserve Bank.
In May 2008 I told my industry colleagues that the payments and telephone card company Bill Expres, with terminals through newsagents in Austrlia and the bopo prepay debit card (largely used by children) would fail. They checked this out and Bill Express personnel scoffed that this was fantasy. Bill Express will fail, its just a matter of time.
Exposures to internatoonal mortgages and credit crunches will testv the Australian banking system. Across Australia home ownersa nd investors will turn in their keys as the crisis deepens and America goes heavily into receession in the housing market. Major mortgage lenders in the USa will become insolvent and have to be bailed out by the American government.
Corporate, and political, spin will be shown for what it is. Beware the Ides of March (2008) for there is a bealk future. Some of you will lose your life's savings.Sell the SVU now for the price of petrol, manipulated by traders and oil refineries lack of investment, will deliberatley rape the globe. Greed abounds and politics is bewildered.- September 2007, despite continued poll results to the contrary I believe at this time,
Kevin Rudd, and the labor party,
will not win
the
2007 federal election by a landslide as generally predicted. Though the media will misrepresent this as a landslide.
It will be close in terms of numbers but not seats. How the seats will fall is difficult to predict. Unusual occurrences will be the order.
The liberals will be shocked by the antipathy of the voters. Though punishment will not be as major as perceived by the pundits. Yet it will be overstated. Australian media is partisan. It is not intuitive and reasoned.
The election will be November 17 or 24, 2007. However this is not the majority opinion.
Mr Rudd has nor defined his argument beyond a line ball proposition and may or may not win despite the deterioration in the trust factor for the Howard government, many senior Ministers and the Prime Minister particularly. This deterioration has been brought about by an ongoing lack of accountability responsibility, questionable integrity in public office, and nasty decisions on the part of a number of Ministers. Decisions for which the justification has been disguised in lies, manipulations and falsehoods. Several Ministers appear oblivious as to how they are perecieved in the electorate particularly Kevin Andrews. Perhaps they dismiss critics on the blind assumption that these people are liberal or Howard haters. They are not all of that ilk. More particularly there are peope who are liabilities in the election.
This is not to say they are not in essence good people working hard in public office, they are. Yet they seem to lack a moral compass. They are perecived as allowing political interest, and ideology, to over ride common sense, humanity, good governance and administration. Their management, and leadership of the Australian Public Service is nothing less than scandalous and in instances, appalling. The service is highly politicised and controlled by Ministerial advisers. There is lack of ideas. Senior, and other, public servants appear in television commercials championing government programmes and policies. These are not thinly veiled political advertisements they are blatant and insulting. Despite being castigated for this the government continues. They have no moral, and ethical, compasses and quite openly spend public funds on their own maintenance of power. 2007 - 2008: PREDICTING A BACKLASH AGAINST A DETERIORATING PUBLIC SERVICE AND THE ROLE OF ADVISERS
The appearance on television by public servants, during the reign of the Howard government in 2007, is a clear breach of the Public Service Code of Conduct and evidence of the decline in values of the Australian Public Service.
The head of the Public Service, Peter Shergold sees no problem with such appearances. He publicly argues there is no decline. This may be at odds with Kevin Rudd's thinking based on his experience in Queensland. Peter Shergold talks poppy cock. There is disregard, in the government and the public service, for the cost imposts on business dealing with the public service particularly in tendering, application of rules and policies, distribution of responsibility and the ever present attempts to pass extrordinary liabilities onto business. It quite simply costs a bomb to deal with all Australia's public services and more often than not effort is wasted in responding to tenders which are (a) already decided or (b) going nowhere due to policy or other decisions.
This is not unique to the federal government (e.g the Access Card which is opposed by Labor) but is a malaise of all public services across the nation. They are pushing liability outwards under the guise of public private partnerships or some other mechanism. The probity rules are an costly impost and act against the public interest. What stupidity is it to state that a tenderer may not advise the Department of a benefit to the public if it was not in the original document. What stupidity to state that a tenderer cannot refer to a change in circumstance, technology or someother benefit during a presentation. The lawyers are making packets of money supervising probity. They are not living in the realm world of cooperative development and relationship building. They are dehumanising interaction with public servants and increasing risks and cost. They are all too often parasites on the public purse rather than valuable additions to the process.
The political advisers, within Australia's governments, are uncontrolled and too often act unethically and perahps illegally and with malice, often against the public interest. Their participation in government and public service, has become of concern since they act in contravention of good governance and the separation of powers and responsibilities. They are taking roles as "fill in for the Minister". Will the real Minister please stand up. Public servants acquiesce to a bullying and spiteful minister, serving the government interest and not the public interest. The chickens are coming home to roost. Labor should not assume that it will be viewed with any higher regard should it assume office.
Government ministries are shackled by a deteriorating public service corporate memory, skill, experience and ability, and decline in ethical standards at senior levels in the bureaucracy required to meet complex challenges. The gap however is closing in favour of Rudd and Labor. The statistics are against him at this time. The election will be decided by between 3,000 and 5,000 votes representing a few percent. The margins in seats will be miniscule. The election will turn on a pin.For the predictions on each electorate in the 2007 federal election, click here.- July 2007, the resignation of Steve Bracks as Premier of Victoria draws near as the factions arrange a transfer to John Brumby. This would spell the end of the John Thwaites as Deputy. Lyne Kosky touted as Deputy does not have the numbers against Rob Hulls and Tim Pallas may hold more cards than John Lenders. Observers and industry leaders believe that there is a lack of depth in the Victorian labor state government.
-
The federal election outcome for 2007 is hard to
predict
as the labor and liberal parties both are on the nose with voters.
The creepy side of the Howard government performance will start to bite and the
Work Choices
legislation will be amended dramatically despite
the resistance of the past. The labor party is very good at belittling those outside its closeted world but will be tested when
some of their own are found to be less than pristine in their world of business. The trade unions are dominating the agenda on
employment and Kevin Rudd will have to
demonstrate that he is an independent soul. Very difficult. The unions add little value in the equation and some actually extort the situation.
The Prime Minister will jettison some of his front bench Ministers between June and August 2007. They will move on to other pastures. Labor thinks that climate change is a vote winner as do the Greens. He, and they, are sadly mistaken. Other more pressing social issues arise and it is not so much about policy as about choice. If we believe that local candidates do not matter, and it is about Howard versus Rudd, then why is labor picking pick celebrity candidates? The hidden influences start to become apparent from June 2007. Behind the scenes what are the manipulators of public opnion doing and are they known to the media and the party strategists? They are moving policy and outcomes through the sheer force of their will, assets and stategies. Julia Gillard is a weak link in the frnt bench labor team. What will Kevin Rudd do?
Mr Rudd's wife, Therese Rein, is selling her business in Australia. Why was this labor person in the game of the Job Network when the labor party atually opposed it? Job Network was portrayed by them as a nasty policy. The allure of the office of Prime Minister and the global network it brings along with future opportunities in the after political life is a powerful inducement for Ms Rein to get out of her contentious business activities in this country. The women who are publicly speaking out about putting the husband's interests first should consider this. - Some time ago I wrote to the Prime Minister on the matter of aboriginal affairs asking why he did not step in in the NOrthern Territory with the army and
band of competent administrators and professionals? He wrote back and I read between the lines. I wrote to the Chief Minister in the
Northern Territory but never received a reply. I wrote my often worthless contributions to other politicians in many governments. They are ignored and the
bureaucrats sit in their isolated world's oblivious to those influences beyond their horizon.
In 2007 Australian democratic interaction has taken on new dimensions which some in the federal government Ministries, and offices, not many but some, have come to realise.
Among them are Gary Nairn, Joe Hockey, Helen Coonan and Peter McGauran. External parties can now genuinely affect the craeers and actions of the public service, politicians and of Ministers. It is a pity that most
executives have not yet learned this lesson.
Federal Minister for Aboriginal Affairs, Mal Brough, has stirred a hornet's nest with his assertions of paedophilia in remote aboriginal communities. He has a swag of evidence and Clare Martin, Chief Minister of the Northern Territory has been sitting on a report for several weeks that will blow the top off her administration. She and her law enforcers have allowed the non - aboriginal itinerants (truckers, mining personnel and others) to carry booze, drugs and money to buy sex, regardless of the age and capacity of the aboriginal people preyed upon, in the communities. The mining companies have allowed their personell free reign to exploit the aboriginal people. The Commonwealth is moving to exercise constitutional power sidelining her incompetent executive, and bureaucracy annexing, it to the will of the federal government under Mal Brough. When will this happen? I predict that will occur in August 2007. - Saturday 16 June 2007, Despite poll results at this time Kevin Rudd and
the labor party would not win the 2007 federal election.- Just as the Qantas bid for takeover by equity raiders will have failed by May 2007 so too will the move by Kohlberg, Kravis Roberts to take over Coles Myer through a managed auction. This will reflect badly on the Board and Senior Management capability athe big store. The small pool of name directors who migrate across the top Australian company boards, through some managed process which appears a bit clubby, are going to take a large hit on their credibility. Margaret Jackson will leave the Qantas Chair despite her claims that she intends to stay put. The world of Australian businessman, James Packer will also alter extensively.
- James Packer, the CEO and majority owner of Publishing and Broadcasting in Australia will move to sell the media assets that his father and grandfather worked so hard to build up. Channel Nine CEO Eddy Maguire will leave as CEO and then Packer will announce a sell down of the media assets to external equity partners. Packer will move more extensively into gaming and new media. The future is ricky as gaming will be found in 2008 - 2009 to be a minefiled with falling values due to over supply, anti gambling activism in countries and substantial down grading of asset values due to a major correction in world sharemarkets particularly driven out of the USA and Asia. Wall Street will view the investment world of gambling quite negaitively and short sellers will move in punting.
- (March 2007) The current Minister for Aging, the Honourable Senator Santo Santoro has been found to have been derelict in completing
his required parliamentary duties in relation to declaration of interest. He claims an oversight and has stronly suggested that he is a person of integrity in public office.
The Prime Minister has supported him in this regard. The manner of the Senator's demeanour and response leads me to question is there something he is not telling the Prime Minister and the
nation? He protests too loudly and vainly to my mind. The
ethical
stature of the Senator may become the issue of focus. I expect that the Senator will not be sitting on the front bench beyond the end of March 2007.
Ethics is a not a playground in which politicians should participate.
Neither labor nor liberal can claim the high ground. We have seen day after day that the Australian labor party is riddled with unethical
and corrupt practices and individuals. Senator Santoro's behaviour in not declaring his share interests on the parliamentary register may well open the door
to door to questions about to the liberal party's constituency.
- I predict the privatisation of Qantas (2006 - 2007) will not go through because the shareholders will not sell the require number of shares. I question the Macquarie Bank and of Mr. Mansfield. What public interest is served by an exercise, the single aim of which is to make money with little comprehension of the "spirit of the Flying Kangaroo" in our hearts and minds?
- On November 25, 2006, the voters of the state of Victoria will elect a new government.
The general concensus is that the incumbent labor government lead by Steve Bracks, will win another term. He will however not serve out 2007 resigning mid year. John Brumby will take over under a factional transfer agreement with Hulls as Deputy replacing the
non aligned John THwaites. The relection of the Bracks' government will occur despite clear evidence that the
labor party in Victoria and the members of the parliamentary party under Steve Bracks are
corrupting the democratic processes through manipulation and misrepresentation, consistent with
the other jurisdictions where the labor party is in
government.
The Premier seems to lack a moral cpmpass since he will become aware of extensive corruption and possibble criinal activity by members of his parliamentary team. The media will begin publishing these cases in 2007. Despite this Bracks will promote the named people and some will be working closely with him. Public policy in Victoria is on paper with a seeming tenuous link to performance.
Steve Bracks win the election but will be limited to the lower house of parliament. The upper house voting processes have been changed which will allow minority parties a greater opportunity to win seats. In 2007 there will be exposesz of Victorian members' of the party association or inadvertent interaction with criminals.
The restructuring of the voting processes for the Upper House is a commendable action of the Bracks' government on the face of it. That is if we are to believe in altruism. The motivations are not clear since the Victorian government on too many occasions appears devious and secreteive and some believe that the members of the Victorian government may lie, or distort the truth, quite often. It is predicted by watchers that the greens party may have the final say, on a vote, if labor and liberal upper house members cannot agree on legislation. Bracks' star recruit, Evan Thornley, will struggle to win votes because he is trying for an upper house seat rather than a safe lower house labor seat. He will make it but by the barest of paper thin outcomes.
The owner of this web site, Kevin R Beck, believes that Bracks' may not have a land slide victory in the lower house in the sense that he controls the politics. Behind the scenes is a movement to hamper the government's domination and manipulation of policy and outcome. They are oblivious to the existence of such influences. The networks of interaction and inteferference with political interest objectives are growing daily.
The liberal party under Ted Baillieu is not stellar but it will make significant gains. Ted Baillieu has a solid record of commercial skill, something which the Bracks' government severely lacks. However this liberal performance will not be as you might expect. It will not be a vote for the liberals that eeventuates. The actual liberal vote may well decline. There will be an increase in the conservative vote, for the National Party, as was the case in the federal election. This increase in state vote grows around the federal electorate of Peter McGauaran. Political commentators, and media, academics and pundits, keep predicting the demise of the National Party. They are reading the political landscape poorly.
If the National Party embraces the climate and environmental issues debate demonstrating leadership, it can steal the ground under the Greens. There is a sense that the Greens can take seats from Labor in Melbourne. This is a ratty party that is unable to synethise complex issues. The electors flirt with the fringe dwellers. They are more an academic party than a hard headed rational political party. Further to my predictions regrading labor's outcomes. I predict a change of voting behaviour in the Latrobe Valley. Within this web site you will find material on the performance of former labor party (federal) member Christian Zahra. He failed to respond to correspondence and issues he saw as irrelevant that I continually raised across federal and state parliaments. He lost his seat. The incumbents of the seat of Morwell and Narracan have developed an underlying ownership demeanour. For the past three decades the politics of local government and state representations have been stage managed by family interests. A small group of actual relatives and friends who were treated as family. This was a strong control when the Valley was dominated by the State Electricity Commission and the unions in a cosy management relationship. Life was good for those who were employed in the Commission and for those who served them in the community. There was an under current of the haves and the have nots. They were largely ignored. The Valley was always middle class with a mix of professionals and trades. The professionals dominated. When the electricity industry was privatised the seeds of destruction of the dynasty were sown. Trades would eventually become the aspirants and rise above the professionals. The unions dominated whilst ever the blue collar worker was "managed" by the professional. With aspiration comes freedom from the yoke and perhaps a more discerning examination of who is doing what and for what reason. The political family of the Latrobe Valley were always focused on their own self interest. The electorate was taken for granted.
It has taken a decade but finally the control will be broken. I have spent a significant amount of time communicating under the radar with people across the expanse of Gippsland. Ignored by the incumbent labor party state members I have worked assiduously to garner feedback and an exchange of ideas. At the last federal election I conveyed to the sitting federal Member, and Minister, Peter McGauran, that his vote would actually increase and that labor would lose the seat of McMillan, held by Chrsitian Zahra. Now I go further in that advice to the Minister. The landscape from East Gippsland, through to Pakenham, at federal and state levels will turn conservative.
There is little depth in the front benches of the labour and liberal parties, presenting voters with yet another dilemma. Who will win? I cannot take a punt. -
The leader of the Australian Labor party in the federal parliament is Kim Beazley. He seems to be oblivious to the
proposition that he has a lame duck front bench, since two of his shadow ministerial members have lost labor pre-selection for the
2007 federal election. Since the party members do not think they are worth their salt why does he think that the people of the nation should have to
put up with lower standards and competencies? Kim Beazley cannot, under even the best conditions, deliver a labor win against John Howard except by the liberals making a massive
number of blunders. It is indeed a disgrace that Beazley might assume that voters are ignorant and he may assume the office of Prime Minister,
based, not on his ability and that of his colleagues, but on
the failure of the incumbent government.
Bye bye Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley's policies (note: not the labor party's) are not that flash that they can attract huge voter upport. We can see the arrogance of the manner of Australia's politics by looking at labor's web site. There they call the policies - "Kim Beazley's policies". Soon they will be called Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard's politices. Why have the other members if they cannot think up some to add? The Beazley approach to government, in the "Caesar" mould, is an insult to democracy and representation. This truth will hit Mr. Beazley in 2006 and it will hit the party. The days of Beazley's leadership are so short that his Christmas will be memorable for him.
The dilemma for the labor party is that many parliamentary members, and party officials, want him removed as leader but they do not seem to see their options clearly. The party will do much better when they elect Julia Gillard as the first female leader of the opposition. The controllers move now to retire Kim Beazley from federal politics along with a large number of current labor parliamentary members. Unfortunately the maturity of Australia's politicians and the cerebral capacities of the nation are not yet developed to the point where they will appoint a female to the leadership let alone to the office of Prime Minister.
Mr. Beazley's interests, and those of his supporters, should not be placed above the public interest as they have been. Their political career interests are not synonymous with the public interest as sThe Australian labor partyu, across the board, at state, federal and territory level are a bland lot lacking innovation and ideas. There are a number of front bench members whose contribution are not of a standard to support their candidacy for Ministers. namely Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith and Stephen Conroy. The labor party factions are the bane of the party. One might well argue that the conservatives are no better in this regard and a far more corrosive to the nation's well being and governance. - The Australian government is selling off another chunk of Telstra, (November 2006), Australia's largest telecommunications utility. The share offer is laced with tantalising incentives and sweeteners. An annual dividend is promised to continue Telstra's record of poor governance. The shares and capital base (reduced by billions) does not warrant a 14% dividend which translates to 20% when combined with taxation policy. Hey, who cares if the dividend is rigged? Make hay while the government has the say. Lose your money on another day ... down the track. The investors have lost over 50% of their capital from the last share sell off. The government is aware of the political calamity that will result if it is another failure. Telstra is grossly over valued at $AUD4.00 and marginally over valued at $A3.50. The company is placing all of its future in a new 3G network. Telstra assumes that Sensis will be a cash cow, on line directories, classifieds and services. Telstra owns a slice of pay television. The content of the current offering of pay channels hardly inspires a national take up. Consumers have no idea what the costs of 3G are in the future. Telstra's American experienced management are translating that countries love affair with technology into the Australian landscape as if they are synonymous. They are not. There are doubts that take up will be sufficient to sustain Telsta's dividend and value levels and operational plans. In 2007 - 2008 I expect that Telstra's share price may well topple below $AU3.00. Technology in mobile phones may be hardly more than a fickle fad for feckless users with little imagination, shallow needs and minute attention spans. Put simply, more money (or credit cards) than sense. There are far better, and less risky, investments than Telstra.
- The head count in the state parliament of Victoria, after November 2006, will be substantially different to what it is now for each party and the number of minority and independent members. The media is interpreting Mr. Baillieu's impact and public support incorrectly. They are judging labor Premier Steve Bracks more harshly than is perceived. Similarly so in Queensland, where Peter Beattie has a significant problem with water. The child care scandal, deaths in hospitals and lack of things like electricity did not galvanise them, but water is. In South East Queensland he will take a political hammering yet he will return to government as if nothing has happened. This is sad indictment of the reality of the Australia political duopoly. Choices and talented representation and government/public sector skills are severely limited.
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Peter Costello, Australia's federal Treasurer, has long been touted as the
natural successor to the Prime Minister, John Howard.
I do not believe this. The Prime Minister has exhibited a willingness to
allow lies to permeate his government, wether it be the invasion of Iraq, the
Children Overboard episode, the stupidity of the statement that
the liberals can have an extensive control over interest rates and many other instances of
poor ethical and moral example. Thus it is unlikely that John Howard would honour any
back room agreements with Peter Costello.
They come from different political realms. background and ideals. Peter Costello I believe cannot
rely upon John Howard or the greater number of the party membership.
He may have two political faces. I think he is a centre, rather than a far right liberal, with leanings towards social justice. He presents a different face in his role as Treasurer in the John Howard led federal government of Australia. In July 2006 he took the unusual step of challenging the integrity of the Prime Minister. He effectively did what many voters have been doing for years. He questioned very bluntly the truthfulness of Mr. Howard. Peter Costello is not liked by a lot of people including liberal voters. Research conducted by the Mosaic Portal owner, Kevin R Beck, indicates that the majority with a dislike are females. It is incomprehensible to me that so many people can find the Prime Minister to have enough virtue to be the leader of Australia, yet they do. They are entitled to their opinion. Even people who are unenlightened, those who are not well read and educated, who do not analyse and question their governments, and political representatives, are entitled to opinions, as are bigots, racists and xenophobics. All such people, and a bunch of others who are quite the opposite, seem to laud John Howard. The fraudulently claimed ability to manage the "economy" seems to engender faith, coupled, blindness and myopia. Peter Costello was never destined to be Prime Minister under John Howard. To an external observer I felt that Mr. Howard was being duplicitious when he implied that he supported Mr. Costello as the next Prime Minister. He does not. Peter Costello may have come to the same opinion. The interesting question is, how many other members of the federal government are aware of this truth? - June 2006, Kerry Packer's empire has passed to his son James.
The interesting thing about dynasties, and the corporate world in Australia, is the nature of its closed participation. In a small nation of 20,000,000
it seems that we can only find a few hundred people to populate our large corporations. Many of these people occupy a number of board roles.
Some are very competent and then there are the charlatans.
Those who hide behind a veil of secrecy, public relations spin and
out right lies. Woolworths has risen to become the market darling under Roger Corbett.
In the back room illegal activity feeds its burgeoning income streams.
Fed by the callous greed and the commercial blood of
small retailers. They are being held to ransom by illegal deeds, maniupulating the market and reducing competition. Praise be to the reign of Roger Corbett and his senior executives, who will never pay the
price for what they have done to small independent liquor retailers who dared to try and create a small business.
Meanwhile back at Publishing and Broadcasting, the newly acquired kingdom of James Packer, corporate thugs hide in the back rooms. They have appointed charismatic Eddie McGuire, television star and football team President to be Chief Executive of broadcaster Channel Nine. The theory is that the qualities that make a start and thus someone eligible to be in the club translate to being able to be the CEO of a major enterprise. They do not in this particular case. A television station is a place of ego and under current. There are many stars here and Eddy McGuire is a "Johnny come lately" by comparison. The real quality that is needed is people skills as well as strong financial and an economic sense. The standard tools will be rolled out, mass sackings. Meanwhile the excesses of the owners and executives will be on display. It is an arrogance born of being looked after and never having to explain or be accountable. Mr. McGuire will crash and burn and he will, in the end, be sacrificed to protect James Packer and the other senior executives of the company known as PBL. The trashing of Kerry Packer's carefully built empire is underway. The sharks smell blood and circle waiting to devour the company. James Packer will degrade and lose the empire, albeit over some time. He will however remain a member of the club and go on to some other endeavour. -
The media and privacy interests reporting and arguing the case on the Australian government's proposal to implement a smart access card are misinterpreting what the card is and what is happening in Australian society and economy. It is not an identity issue and not about another card we have to carry. It is about fraud reduction and elimination and about convergence, and integration, of existing services. It is about what, and who, is behind the scenes which is of far greater import than what the Australian government contemplates.
A new technology centre will be developed, most probably in Queensland. It will focus on the technology of cards. Credit cards, debit cards, smart cards and chip science, materials, manufacturing and the methods of production of all types of personalised cards. It will focus on software systems and data, how records are stored and where, on research and education. It will herald an expansion of Australia's participation in the Asia Pacific economy and in export and import of intellectual property and high technology skills. The initiative in creating this centre will provide jobs and new opportunities.
In 2007 the four major banks will unveil their plans for a new authenticated identification system for banking and financial transactions. The major banks will move to progressively replace all Australian credit and debit cards along with ATM and EFTPOS readers. These new cards and readers will utilise dual authenticated and smart card chip technology. All smaller institutions will be forced to follow suit. The liability will shift from its current modus operandi where the credit card companies, such as Visa and Mastercard, wear any losses resulting from fraudulent transactions to the providers (banks, retail stores and others) and thus to the customer. It will be more expensive to operate a bank account and to own, and use, a credit and debit card.
This will coincide with the implementation of the Australian government's Access Card. All state and territory governments will have to address security in their own transactions and in their physical (infrastructure building access) and logical (computer) access. The states and territories will have to develop new driver's licences that conform to much stricter identity and security formats and design. Employment agencies will have to provide their employees, who work as temporary staff and contractors, in government and sensitive enterprises, with authenticated identification. New security measures across the nation, at every level, will increase costs. These measures are being driven by a myriad of interests, some apparent such as governments and bank, and others not so apparent. New business interests will enter the market bringing substantial competition into this technological arena. - I write to federal labor member, Stephen Smith, quite often on issues particularly to do with his portfolio as spokesperson on industrial relations and he also has infrastructure and industry. This is a big brief beyond his capacity to grasp and articulate. He never responds because to do so would require effort and knowledge. His office never responds. They are as ignorant as he is. He is a blank sheet on policy arguments. He is supposed to be arguing the case for labor's dislike of the federal government's Work Choices legislation. It is an easy argument to run since the federal Minister Kevin Andrews misrepresents the situation on so many occasions. This is either deliberate or he is not competent in the portfolio. The legislation is a piece of convoluted ideology (largely based on thuggish sanctions and crude concepts) with deliberate intent to damage others such as unions, business and people who do not obey the fascist commands documented there in. Stephen Smith is not a failure in the role. To fail would imply that he tried to do something. He will lose the delegation in 2006. Hopefully he will not be given another. Such a hope is forlorn because the leader of the party, Kim Beazley and a number of senior labor figures, are as inept as Stephen Smith. They are warming their seats to collect their pensions.
- The Australian government, and many leading lawyers, believe that the Commonwealth Work Choices legislation governing employment will withstand the High Court challenge being mounted by the states starting Thursday 3rd May, 2006. I think that the Work Choices legislation will not pass the constitutional test. I predict core elements of the act will be struck down by the court. The Australian Constitution specifies the Commonwealth government's powers with regard to corporations. One may well read the document as referring more to the regulatory regime of how corporations might behave and what "commercial" and "criminal" laws might be applicable rather than how they should employ people? The section is not clear and is more on the nebulous side. The court may take a literal wording but this is difficult govern the paucity of words. The Constitution also sets a limitation in industrial relations powers to conciliation and arbitration. The High Court has become the primary defender the citizenry in the absence of a bill of rights. The parliaments of Australia, and the legislators, have failed to represent, and protect citizens, preferring party self interest to public integrity. Without the High Court there is effectively no body to protect against the excesses of the executive of Australia's governments, particularly the federal government.
- (April - July 2006) The government will be asking the Board of Telstra some questions about governance and practice. Chief Executive, Sol Trujillo must be called before the Senate to explain the tendering and senior management appointment practices currently in vogue in Telstra. Call them all. If they decline to appear then jail them for contempt. However the Australian Senate is a weak kneed body in that regard. A person an show contempt for the peoples' parliament and they just bluster and make noises for show. Why should anyone respect the Senate when it does not respect itself and demand respect?
April 2006: What a waste of public money (that is since the public is the largest shareholder) the Telstra Human Resources Management are. They cost millions. What is the salary of the Executive head of Human Resources in Telstra? What value is there? Well the shareholders cannot tell because the Australian government does not enquire and the Board does not offer the information. This is Australia's largest company and it is 50.1% publicly owned but if you write to one of the well paid executives in Telstra, and enquire about anything you are likely to get short shift. Look at the upcoming scrutiny of executive appointments and tendering processes. Telstra management will alternate between lies, obsfucation and fear of retribution from the newly imported US executives, all whom have former associations with the Chief Executive. The US phone company from which they all came must be a bottler of a performer to warrant all of them being transported to Australia. Alcatel must be a tremendously superior company to be treated differently to others as must be Latin America company, Brightstar. It seems that both these companies have had a long and salubrious relationship with the Chief Executive, in a past life.
Senior management of Telstra seem to have the Board captive to a new style of expedited decision making, investment and management processes. They also seem to have delegated some of their corporate governance oversight to the Telstra management. I asked for a meeting and did not get a reply. You snigger! Why would a million dollar executive give me, a pleb, the time of day, you ask? Because I asked politely, I am a shareholder and a user of Telstra's services and it is 51% owned by the Australian government and thus the people of Australia. Also because I am a student and admirer of new management trends such as limited tendering, mates rates and clubs and decisions that could be labelled by critics as corrupt.
I want the head of human resources in the organisation to tell the owners, the Australian public what is planned for the employees. If she will not tell then I will ask the Minister, Senator Helen Coonan, to find out and tell us. It is probably a typical lack of regard for Australia's talent. If Australia has a shortage skill why is it never in the big corporations?
The performance of Telsta is like the administration in particular Australian government departments, and Ministries, mediocre, inept, secret and often arrogant. Prior to Mr. Trujillo telling the market a different story, senior managers in Telstra, managed to devalue Telstra's asset base and shares to what it is today. When it comes to privatise the balance of Telstra, the Howard government probably has little interest in how the company runs its human resources and what happens there, but that will be a battleground for some who do care. Privatisation will be a long running issue ramped up by those with the time and will to persist.
Human resource issues will be a lingering "pain in the arse" to the government, and to those who chance their arm and money by purchasing the company. In 2000 I wrote to governments and politicians around Australia challenging the then management's public statements on the health of Telstra. I did this again in 2001 through to 2005. I said Telstra was worth about $28 billion, not $33 billion as Treasurer Costello had in the books. So what will the number be when the government comes to sell? It depends upon how much regulation is foisted on the Australian telecommunications industry. The Chief Executive of Telstra, Mr. Sol Trujillo supported by the Board, has waged a war of words, and attrition against government regulation. This is consistent with Mr. Trujillo's former stance in the USA. Minister for Telecommunications, Senator Helen Coonan seems publicly unimpressed but this might be window dressing.
Telstra wants to build a 3G network purportedly for $A3 billion ( bit light on the budget) but claims fears that the government will mandate access for its struggling competitors. Optus Australia (Singtel) wants to join with Telstra in the network and the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission will have to be careful in allowing such a move. Why have a costly competing separate network in a nation where the population base cannot sustain such things? Telstra's strategy seeks to strand its small competitors who are all buying services within Telstra's current old generation exchanges. If the government mandates access, and Telstra makes loud noises, the price may drop dramatically to $2.80 a share. Internet, and broadband, take up is not going a swimmingly as the experts claimed it would, anywhere in the world, since it took off in the late nineties. What happens to the Telstra system, when and if, the telepower network falls over in a number of places? Has it already begun to do so and has Telstra kept a miscalculation of the risk factor, very quiet? At $3.90, considering earning ratios and future revenues, Telstra is very much over priced. - (April 2006) One method of hiding inefficient management within a corporation is to go on an expansion spree. Continual acquisitions, and take overs, keeps the board, the auditors and the shareholders busy. It is impressive to the media and to the markets. Toll Holdings in Australia in Australia likes to go on take over sprees. They have just acquired Patrick, the Australian stevedoring company. Toll is reportedly a conglomerate of $10,000,000,000 Australian dollars. What happens now? Does Toll acquire more or does Mr. Little actually demonstrate that he, and the Board and management, know how to run a large conglomerate? If there is nothing left to buy what will he, and they do? I would not want to own Toll shares once the acquisition is complete. Why? I think that they may have masked the fact that they might not be able to manage their new commercial empire and I think it will probably will fall over in 2007 - 2008. I would personally buy KS Corp shares, based in South Australia, because Lindsay Fox's family trucking company might just amalgamate with them.
- Off and Running. The former CEO of the National Australia Bank (NAB), Frank Cicutto, has gone off to work elsewhere in a property company. Will the property company expand like the NAB Bank did and then run off the rails too? I think so. I find it extraordinary that people who leave an organisation under a cloud, with a particular history of performance, very public to boot, can be picked up by others, as if nothing happened. They may be eager to replicate history. Perhaps it is about looking after club members?
- Is it not time the leader of the Victorian Opposition Party, Robert Doyle, chucked in the towel? Does he want to put his party and the people who vote liberal through more misery? What a disappointment Ted Bailleu is. He will not have a go and challenge Robbie. The theatrics is not boring, it cost the public money but little do they care. This is pure torture. Old farts, and their crony colleagues, living on the public purse, in the parliament of Victoria Australia, as if it were their personal sand box. Get a move on, or preferably piss off, for you lot in the Victorian conservative parties are truly a waste of money.
- Anthony Albanese is a federal labor politician. He opposes a change to the Australian labor party's policy on the number of uranium mines in Australia. He, together with like minded colleagues in the labor party, the Greens and the Australian Conservation Foundation, will be marginalised and they will be outmanoeuvered. Anthony Albanese's contribution in the labor party, will by his own hand, be sidelined and ultimately he will be consigned to irrelevancy. He will resign from the party, and perhaps the Australian parliament, in 2007 in protest. The state government of West Australia will abandon its opposition to uranium mining on state and national interest arguments reversing their policy platform. Queensland labor party will follow suit. KEVINRBECK's prediction for uranium set out below and described in detail in the KEVINRBECK uranium debate site, as distributed to Australia's parliaments and media, over one year ago in January 2005, will have come to fruition.
- On March 18, 2006, Tasmanians will go to the polls to vote for their state government. The Premier, Paul Lennon, took over when Jim Bacon died in 2005. Unfortunately for labor, and the citizens of Tasmania, Lennon lacks the panache, good sense and charisma of his predecessor and friend. Therefore one can expect for labor to do rather poorly in this election with a significant decline in Mr. Lennon's vote in his seat if ethics was the barometer. It is not. Voters are not likely to hold labor generally across the state accountable for its ethical proclivities. The quality of candidates is limited by the small population base of this island state. The liberal party will be the first to break labor's hold on state governments in Australia. Rene Hidding is the leader of the liberal party and he has a superior sense of the actual role of a premier not possessed by Mr. Lennon. The Greens party expects to poll well. It will not. This is despite the party's inability to frame its policies for a mainstream audience and a modern, energy hungry self indulgent majority of Australians. Socially they are advanced, economically they appear to be pixies preferring to gamble on technology not yet invented or incapable of delivering the outputs of fossil fuels at competitive sustainable prices. Tasmania will shortly go on line with its Basslink connection to the mainland. Whatever government is in power after that occurs will find themselves in a well of pain economically as the reality of the situation comes home. The politicians (most particularly labor) have told the community that Basslink will make Tasmania a lot of money. They have told the community that mainland electricity distributors will want the "green power of the hydro". They have told the community that they will be able to sell electricity at the high peaking price. They have told the community that natural gas will make industry flock to the island. They have implied there will be lower gas and electricity prices. None of this is quite true and Tasmania will be held ransom to a market they do not comprehend.
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In March 2006 a number of sitting members of labor's governments in Victoria and federally are finding themselves under attack from
candidates within their own parties. Of particular interest to the media, and political players and watchers is Simon Crean. Mr. Crean holds the federal seat of Hotham in Victoria.
He is being challenged by (no surprise) a trade union official Martin Pakula. He is thirty seven years of age. Simon is somewhat older.
Simon now is feeling a little like the older unemployed person who comes to an interview for a job. All too often the interviewee is in their twenties or thirties, short on experience, knowledge and "street smarts". They can be described as "wet behind the ears". The unemployed person must hold their counsel and not appear to hold disdain. Simon Crean will win the ballot. There are a number of reasons. The first is that the seat of Hotham has a high percentage of Asian voters, who have come from totalitarian regimes. They have been shaped in their experience and thinking, by party officials. They have come to Australia and find themselves able to vote and influence. Neither Simon or Mr. Pakula speak their language. Thus they are accompanied by translators. Mr. Pakula has no public profile to speak of. Simon, on the other hand, has been in their electorate for sixteen years? They have seen Simon's picture and have met the man many times, including at their temple. They know this party official and they trust him even though he does not speak their language.
Martin Pakula is like the "wet behind the ears" corporate guru who espouses change and new generations. He says that he "gets a sense that there is a great appetite for change and there's enormous frustration from some very working class communities with labor's lack of success", (Michael Gordon, the Age, March, 4, 2006). The inference here is that Mr. Pakula thinks that he can do better than Simon and if he and the "new generation" are in, there will be victory. There may be some merit in putting Bill Shorten and Mark Dreyfus in, given their broad links to business and community. How broad is Mr. Pakula's experience and talent, by comparison? I have not met Mr. Pakula but I have met the other two and I have met with Simon on a number of occasions. I have dealt with Simon when he was a Minister under labor Prime Minister Paul Keating. He was particularly keen to assist the long term unemployed, and accepted an innovative labor market programme proposal put to him. Bill and Simon actively seek out the people who might influence, behind the scenes or who have the resources to enter the Game and it appears that Martin Pakula might have little idea who these hidden influences in the world of politics might be, if he realizes they exist at all? The words of the US Secretary of Defence, Mr. Rumsfeld, come to mind. There are things that we know, things that we do not know and things that we do not know we know, or something to that effect. Mr. Pakula to my knowledge has not sought to learn the things that he does no know that he does not know. Perhaps he thinks he has only to meet, greet and influence a the pre-selection voters in the electorate and within the central administration of the state labor party? Thus I have news for him, that will not deliver him Hotham for he has to get at least 75% of the vote of the members because that is what Simon Crean holds.
One wonders who these un-named working class types, to which Mr. Pakula refers, are? The ex-patriots from Cambodia, and other citizens, of the electorate who are articulate about their existing representative, or him, and hungering for a labor victory? The last reason why Simon will win is that Mr. Pakula and others are saying they are keen to reverse labor's fortunes and win government. How will they do this? By choosing to stand for safe labor seats eschewing the harder, and more risky, task of trying to win marginal coalition (liberal and national) seats. It takes talent and spine to sit in Australia's federal parliament, in a seat that has been hard won. Mr. Pakula only has to ask Kim Beazley, the leader of the Australian Labor Party. Kim fought to win his seat in Western Australia time and time again, until given a safer option. Mr. Pakula does not seem to have the juice to take the risk. Some see this as a weakness. I see it as "wet behind the ears, self indulgent egotism". Mr. Pakula, from my perspective, offers little value to those he would purport to represent in the house of the people. Surely Mr. Beazley and others in the party can see this obvious deficiency? - John Howard will find two significant episodes in his political career will damage him irreparably.
These will surface in 2006 and spiral progressively out of control. Such that in 2007 he will be unable to
run for office and will decide to retire. He will abandon the hapless, and sinking coalition,
to Peter Costello. These events are:
the Australian Wheat Board the Workplace Relations Act
and disregard for the value of Australia's human capital - The merger talks between Qantas and Singapore Airlines will cease
- Singapore Airlines will not be granted access to the Sydney - Los Angeles route
- The University of New South Wales will not establish an education enterprise in Singapore, not due to ethical, and moral, concerns. They simply haven't recognised them yet. It will be a business catastrophe. If they do establish the school it will be economically unviable.
- Singaporean military will be withdrawn from Australia ostensibly by the Singaporean government
- Optus (owned by Singtel) will progressively lose telephone accounts, and business, not as a result of the execution of an Australian citizen. They will lose business because Singtel is a dead hand on the Australian operation, starving it of funds. Singapore management live within their closeted narrow culture of single minded business pursuit and self indulgence. Australian consumers do not trust Optus, or for that matter any other telephone company. They have convoluted contracts and confused offerings. They rarely of ever respond to correspondence. If you ask an Optus call centre not to call you, they simply disregard this. They pester and their opening statement is always, because you are a loyal and valued customer. They will lose business because Singaporean owners do not allow Optus to spend the necessary capital. They will lose because Singaporean business operates in a subisdised, and government controlled, environment. I have an Optus telephone and I feel that there is something not quite right in the advertisements for capped agreements. They use intrusive, telemarketing. Telstra will leverage its advantage against its competitors and spread its wings into Singtel territory. In my experience Optus never responds to correspondence. It is unlikely that other businesses, such as Singapore power, will be affected by the execution. interests in Victoria and South Australia
Will the coalition in Iraq be surprised particularly the Australian government when the government of Iraq falls under the influence of Iran or when Hamas wins a majority of seats in the 2006 Palestinian elections? The US concept of democracy is not the same as an Arabic concept. However the yanks, and some of its supporters, perhaps Australia, don't yet grasp this.
Telstra boss, Sol Trujillo will outwit the Australian government, ACCC and competitors, and tactically isolate Telstra's networks and technology from its competitors.
- Kim Beazley will lose prestige as a result of his propensity for dithering.
Factional preselection wars will break out across federal seats whilst Beazley is leader.
He will muff significant opportunities presented by scandals.
He has missed the "consumer cost" blow out of Peter McGauran's
Australian food labelling proposals (2006). These are being pushed through the Australian parliament, and outward, to the states and territories. The Minister's advisers could be described as "myopic". They will unleash a Pandora's box of consumer issues.
They have a limited perspective of the Australian political landscape and are oblivious to any influences, that are not patently obvious, anywhere outside of their
central labor party world. Strategists, I the corporate world, sit beyond their horizon and beyond their imagination.
Watch Mr. Stanhope, the Chief Minister, in Canberra, because he is going places politically. In the next federal election he will run for a federal seat.
Some federal labor members, and branches, are looking to recruit ACT Chief Minister, Jon Stanhope, to the federal arena, as a leadership prospect to replace Kim Beazley, the current federal labor leader. Some large donors to the party cannot see that there talent in the existing federal labor party parliamentary membership to assume the leadership. They are turning their eyes to Mr. Stanhope who not only distinguishes himself from the liberal and national parties but also from the mediocrity of the labor party generally. They think that he may have a better grasp of social policy and is not afraid to debate citizens, policy and decisions, openly. They also think that he can express himself and relate to ordinary people better than the front bench members and the leader of the Opposition, Mr. Kim Beazley. Mr. Stanhope seems not so inclined to the same self delusion, and denial, that emanates from Kim Beazley every few days as he struggles to demonstrate what it is he precisely might be in terms of a conviction politician with the required ability of simple and direct communication. The Labor party of 2005 is lead by people of the past who are bred on waiting their turn and opportunity. Kim Beazley cannot win an election on his current form. He is also up against a broader church of talent in the liberal and national. The pre-selection processes of the liberal, and national parties are more diverse and open, than the labor party, which is captive to unions and factional machine men. It is a withering entity strangling itself on hubris and aged theories of management and control. The federal labor machine is about to learn that maybe not all decision making, as to who gets the top spots, rests in their hands. They may find that external forces gather to take control out of the hands of the current regime. They now have a task. Decide who will give up their federal labor seat to enable Jon Stanhope to enter federal parliament in a by election and to decide if Bill Shorten shall have Maribynong in Melbourne. - Australian media is reporting that the leader of the Australian National Party, and Deputy Prime Minister, Mark Vaile, overseas for trade talks (October 11, 2005) will upon his return castigate the
good Senator, Barnaby Joyce, for crossing the floor and voting against the Howard government's proposed amendment to the
Trade Practices Act. The Senator feels that easing the rules on mergers will help the giant
corporations who wield market power.
This prediction by the media is rubbish. One only has to look at the current efforts of
the Agriculture Minister, Peter McGauran, on behalf of farmers against similar market power to realise that
Senator Barnaby is being consistent with the National party strategy to place itself at the forefront of
electorate representation. If Mark Vaile is not cognisant of this unique window of opportunity, in this term of parliament, before the next election,
then he should not be leader. In 2006 Vaile will face a crisis as Peter McGauran's brother, Julian considers his political future and allegiances. Julian's position on the National Party Victorian Senate ticket has long been protected by Peter's
efforts. The Victorian State National Party want Julian out and Julian is rattled by Barnaby's antics.
If Julian gets antsy in his National whip role in the Senate then cracks will appear. Barnaby is showing up
Julian's proclivities for unflattering responses.
There may be a public display of slapping Barnaby Joyce's hand to placate the challenged members of the liberal party, and perhaps some unthinking national party members who might believe that the parliament is their playground, and their personal fiefdom. However if Vaile comes down hard on Barnaby he will pay an electoral price. The Cole Enquiry is a critical issue for Mark Vaile. Documents, and testimony, are emerging that Vaile knew of the AWB and BHP strategies in Iraq and was present at meetings. Vaile denies this and so does the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. All are saying that they, and their Ministers, knew nothing. On balance effective managers of the public interest, particular a government granting a company a monopoly would know. It would suit the goals of the liberal party, on top of Julian McGauran's efforts, to have Vaile go down, effectively dealing a blow to the coalition partner. Internal enemies within the liberal party would happily lose Downer too. It is my expectation that Vaile will be sacrificed.
Liberal strategists, and control freaks in the office of Prime Minister and Cabinet, want a solid, do as you are told, coalition rank without baggage and surprises. In modern day managerial politics, independent thinkers are not all that popular and they are not really supported. They are managed. Barnaby Joyce is resisting being managed. Mark Vaile is the manager, of the Nationals, on behalf of the liberal machine. He is a surrogate leader for John Howard .
As Senator Joyce says, if one is going to be told how to vote then they may as well put in a proxy. Why bother to come at all? The second question is why belong to the National Party if it is considered by lesser lights and arrogant liberals to be a branch of the Liberal Party? This is a question that a good many members of Australia's parliaments (state, federal and territory) may well ask themselves. Why not merge? Federal labor spokesperson, Joel Fitzgibbon, whose contribution over his time in parliament is at best lame. He called Senator Joyce "turn around Barnaby". At least Senator Joyce can think for himself and is articulate to boot. One may question labor leader Kim Beazley's judgement as to why Fitzgibbon is in such a role? The Labor party tots out tired policies and responses on vocational education and industrial relations, on health and economy and just about every other portfolio issue. Beazley and his team may well have years of experience and heaps of commitment but they seem to be listening to some pretty poor advice from people who are not the best to assist them. -
Market watchers and those who think they know who calls the tune might well do more research and look beyond the horizon. Here's an example.
In 2000 a small Australian company, with interests in international R&D, took on the light metals policy platform of the Australian government, the business model of Australian Magnesium Corporation, CSIRO and the
power collective generally. They proposed that a world class light metals R&D facility be established at the University of New South Wales in Sydney in conjunction with
Australian and international, commercial and scientific interests. They were rebuffed by governments and ridiculed by those who knew better and who had better connections to government and the world of big business.
They did not consider the tenacious attitude of this smaller company and the ability of its consultants to enter this world of politics and big business on an international scale.
Over a period of four years consultants, to the small company, continually warned the Australian and State governments, particularly Queensland, Australia's premier research entity CSIRO, other larger and well connected magnesium proponents, the Australian government R&D advisers, the media, and members of Australia's parliaments, that the government supported magnesium project valued at $1.4 billion, with a significant public investment, would fail. They travelled the world meeting with investors, bankers, corporate executives, manufacturers, scientists and government agencies discussing the strategies of these powerful Australian interests in magnesium technology and R&D and distributed analytical papers comparing technologies and investment proposals. The Australian and New South Wales governments declined to support the establishment of the research laboratory at the university in Australia. The NSW government also refused to acknowledge that the small company has a technology that destroys asbestos and which could rehabilitate an environmental hazard in northern NSW whilst extracting quality magnesium. The proposed project, offered by the small company, was lost to international interests. In 2004 the Australian Magnesium project, underway in Queensland, failed costing the Queensland taxpayers millions of dollars and small investors and communities much, much more. As at 2005 the Australian and state governments, and the experts who rebuffed the overtures of the small company, accept no responsibility.
Today (September 2005) the Australian government insists that CSIRO, funded for a $50M programme, is still on track and that there is a "flagship" programme in light metals, magnesium technology", that will bear fruit sometime in the distant future. There is no recognition that the creation of a magnesium industry in Australia was blocked by ignorance of technology, lack of vision and the ego of those who purport to know better. In 2006 the small company was taken over by a larger resource entity. They are now diversifying into some new dimensions in mining, perhaps uranium? - The New Zealand government (February - April 2006) is getting cold feet over the actions of Australian Agriculture Minister, Peter McGauran, and his calls for more detailed food labelling.
Facing an election in September 2005 that is being called as close, the NZ people might like to opt out of the Australian food labelling regime.
Australia has been bending the rules on such things in keeping with its aping support of the US position.
It is neither here nor there for NZ because they have an overarching treaty of mutual reciprocation which means what is legal in NZ is legal in Australia, as it relates their imports.
This is even so if a food or other item contains an ingredient that is normally banned here.
That allows them to bring any NZ product into Australia under their banner. They will exercise their rights and flex their muscles in 2006, causing Minister McGauran a few head aches.
One wonders if he is in touch with the New Zealand High Commission all that often? It is just down the road in Canberra, Australia.
Major Australian chains will do a deal with NZ producers to bring in their food and generic products. You will see produce branded "NZ" in Woolworths and Safeway supermarkets in January 2006. Competing interests will deal a major blow to Australian manufacturers, seeking to bypass the labelling requirements being introduced by Minister for Agriculture, Peter McGauran. They will defeat the Australian farmers who have been driving their tractors assiduously around Australia yelling "buy Australian". These farmers will feel duped, by the seeming inaction of the federal government departments in progressing issues agreed to by peter McGauran. The departments will have to have a study and to prepare a strategy advice paper and that will take them the better part of 2006.
The retail big chain corporations will move to counter Dick Smith's bright idea for Australian made aisles in shops. How would you know what is Australian? Australian producers should mount a counter strategy with a group like Aldi who use quite a lot of Australian product and who are cheaper than the major supermarkets. They could similarly come to an arrangement with IGA retailers. However the major corporations know of this strategy and perhaps they might want to move behind the scenes, under the radar, cherry picking these stores individually. They will seek to neuter, shackle and eliminate competition through friendly third parties acquirers from overseas. These friendly types buy up the independent retailers and the ACCC might be oblivious. - (2005) Tasmanian potato farmers have been driving tractors around Victoria and are coming to the capital, Canberra, in August 2005, and might like to drop by the NZ High Commission. They are on about McDonalds and other large users of products buying from anywhere but Australia and have Minister McGauran's ear. Meanwhile his cabinet colleagues negotiating Free Trade Agreements and World Trade positions are probably wondering how they might reconcile a "buy Australia" first campaign with the acceptance by governments, and most politicians and corporate leaders, of the economic wonders of free trade for Australia and the 3rd world?
- Meantime Australian manufacturers are scared willy - nilly of the supermarket chains creating their three tier house brands and the impact on real brands.
Coles Myer is their dread and this organisation needs capital to fund its expansion into the petrol game and also into the purchase of plant and manufacturing to expand its domination of food. Where will it get this cash? It will sell its under performing general department and clothing stores and narrows its base out of general merchandising into the more cash rich food, liquor and supermarkets sectors. There will be a war, ever expanding, between interests in Australia and multinational investors coming here under Free Trade Agreements. -
Richard Mulcahy, a member of the Australian Capital Territory Assembly, will ultimately replace Brendan Smyth as leader of the liberal party in opposition in 2005. Mr. Mulcahy, former National head of the
Australian Hotels Association of Australia has more experience than Mr. Smyth. Mr. Mulcahy can challenge the labor government lead by Jon Stanhope. Jon Stanhope is out of his depth even though he heads up a fiefdom of only 300,000 citizens.
He exhibits very poor judgement. For example he decided to support public servants and others who are aggrieved at being shown to be derelict of duty and incompetent in relation
to the major bushfire that killed people and destroyed hundreds of homes in Canberra. As Attorney General, he adopts the superman profile of the alpha male. "I can be everything at once".
He goes off to the Supreme Court to argue the Coroner is biased. He has no idea what biased in this case actually means and seems to be dumb to the fact that the government appointed advisers to the Coroner who actually are
beholden to the government and not independent.
She thinks they are independent and he does not tell her that they are not. He and everyone else loses, in the court. He says the judgment is flawed. Does it say Jon Stanhope, LLB, (Lawyer) after his name?
Stanhope might appear incompetent to some but he is a trier, and is honest.
The ACT Assembly is a hybrid government, within the Australian Territories legislative framework. It acts more like a local government council and costs more than it delivers in benefits. Seventeen members, earning between $95,000 and $170,000 each in public office, serviced by thousands of public servants, to represent a country town of 300,000 people is farcical. It takes fourty minutes by car in any direction to reach the borders of the Territory. He argues, with his ACT Assembly colleagues, that there should be four additional electoral representatives to serve 300,000 people taking the number to 21. This is a joke but these people live in a rarefied world driven by delusions of being busy and overworked. The ACT could be a serious economic, social and democratic, proposition if talent and merit was the primary mechanism for choosing candidates in the Assembly however it is not. Like every other government in Australia it is the personal fiefdom, and milking cow, of the Labor and Liberal Parties. - The changes to Australia's industrial relations systems will not be well received by the greater number of corporations, employers, employees and citizens. The government relies upon its Constitutional (Corporations) power, which somebody mentioned to them.
They seem to have never actually understood the Constitution, if they have read it.
It is a complex document beyond the comprehension of many of them in the parliament it would seem because it is premised upon the elected member being accountable to parliament and the people, rather than to the political parties and factions they are in which are not actually mentioned. Despite this they like to rush out ideology without doing their homework. They rely upon wet behind the ears lawyers and public servants who have no experience, history and knowledge of the past. You see the government culled the expertise out because it was suspicious of them.
This is typical of people who listen to their own egos talking in their head saying, "you can do this".
They just take another political Viagra pill and go for it. They are invariably male.
The Minister for Workplace Relations and front bench members of the federal government take their strong men pills every day. The government is disregarding the historical response of Australian citizens to a good industrial war. However there will be no industrial war. Secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Greg Combet, will fight using the tools and tactics of the big end of town and the ones utilised by governments - advertising, spin, media grabs, advertisements and the Internet warriors. He will attack the government on multiple levels and will leverage his own board room networks. Federal Minister Mr. Kevin Andrews is disregarding of, or are oblivious to, the complex nature of IR, education, training and harnessing human talent and he is not a seasoned "fighter" on multiple fronts. From the perspective of the government's corporation powers, not every business and every employer is a corporation, but who cares when you are on a holy mission! The government's tactic is to give them time to
get on board pestering them until they surrender and incorporate. Why incorporate if the High Court of Australia is going to rule against the federal government's Work Choices legislation in a number of significant areas, rendering it into a patchwork quilt of incomprehensible legislative "spaghetti".
Many of the politicians could not survive a corporate governance audit if they occupied similar ranking positions in the corporate sector. They would fail the acting in good faith
ethics and integrity tests
required of company Directors.
Ministers of Australia's parliaments do not have to justify their position, or performance, on their roles as they demand of employees and other workers. They are protected, and anointed, by a warped and corrupted system. They are allowed to persist in their roles by
detached voters who little regard for the quality of government and democracy.
Just as we revel in the legend of Ned Kelly and the Eureka Stockade, so too has the nation reacted to the legendary war horses of a bygone trade union era who put green bans on buildings and brought services to a halt. They are gone and the populace has no need for unions. At least that is the theory upon which many rely. The pendulum swings. Unions just have to reinvent themselves. The media loves a good story, and pragmatic employers who have much to lose if strikes occur and people become insecure and untrusting, will enter into industrial relations agreements ignoring the pleas of the federal government. The government may well abolish the award system and the industrial relations unfair dismissal protections but it cannot direct people to obey and adopt ideological policies . which are premised on distorted bargaining relationships. We have enough of these already in Australia. Coverage, and compliance, across Australia will be patchy and disappointing for the government. They think that it will take a few months to bed down and then all will be forgotten. They will have to prosecute a number of employers as an example to demonstrate their claim of fairness. The Fair Pay Commission will invite more calamity for the government. They really have not thought everything through. Let the dance begin. - Gunn's Timber in Tasmania is using SLAOO suits to silence critics. This is quite stupid and costly. They will ultimately lose their legal suits against environmental and other interests activists who oppose their activities in Tasmania. There might be a number of reasons for this among them the litigious and vexatious nature of the company. Another will be the notion of free speech, particularly if it has a "political connotation". Gunn's decision to take legal action demonstrate the level of immaturity that exists in Australia's corporate thinking, in not realising that dissent is a natural, and desirable part, of a mature and vibrant society. Gunn's association with political parties in Tasmania and the relationships of board members and politics and relationship between Gunns and the public service administrators, and the decision making processes are of public interest. This relationship has taken Gunns into the realm of politics and the High Court has stated that the Australian Constitution guarantees free speech and certain action in the political realm. The question of breaking laws through demonstration and other acts of vandalism is a different question. This episode is one of citizen versus corporation and the state where the latter two appear indivisible. The Tasmanian government, of either political persuasion, has a long history of association with Gunns. The government has a history of ignoring conflicts of interest, a history of collusive behaviour and exclusive dealings with enterprise. This can seen in the historical decisions on gas and Basslink. The Premier of Tasmania accepted significant hospitality from Crown Casino, owned by PBL, and then granted a lucrative gambling license to interests associated with PBL, in a venture. The Premier dissembled as to the meaning of hospitality and then with typical arrogant hubris told those who questioned his judgement to butt out. Tasmania is the least ethical, and maintainer of high standards of integrity, among the nation's governments.
- Clare Martin will take labor to a stunning win in the Northern Territory as the Country Liberal Party leader loses his seat
- The loss of energy along the power line proposed between Darwin and Queensland would make the CLP's proposal a significant engineering cost impost. To propose this project demonstrates the lack of understanding of energy and a blinkered approach to
visionary solutions on this vital topic.
During the years 2000 - 2002 I travelled the world discussing mineral investments and in a particular meeting with a financial investment manager at Billiton in London I discussed nuclear energy. In January 2005 I predicted uranium mines would be expanded and that a nuclear power station is coming in Australia's future and will be built, perhaps near the NSW, Victoria and South Australian borders. I wrote to the Prime Minister, and federal and state Ministers on this issue shortly after and sent emails to members across the parliaments of Australia asking why we could not have a mature debate. Queensland Premier, Peter Beattie is wedded to the coal industry and cannot go with them. Steve Bracks is irrelevant and is still on his "learner's plates" as a leader. He is captive to radical and uneducated (in terms of understanding energy and consumers) "green" interests.
His ignorant and stubborn refusal to admit that he and his Education Minister are wrong to sack the Orbost teacher demonstrates an ignorance of the qualities of leadership. When he is given a choice of backing down he lacks the ability to be humble and generous. His political position is of greater value to him than another person's ;livelihood or dignity. Bracks may be Premier but he certainly is not a "premier" leader.
He, and his strategists, lost a billion dollar ship building contract to South Australia because they cannot see past their own reflections and egos in the mirror of their self interest. They will not listen on strategy, knowing all of the answers. Hubris reigns supreme in the corridors of labor part hegemony. - Kim Beazley made a tactical error on the taxation issue but his ongoing blunder on immigration will not go away. Unless he gets new advisers, and tacticians, and a new front bench, he will again find that he is a loser in 2007. He has lost the fight and is appears punch drunk, and unless he bites the bullet he will have to resign as Labor leader. Lindsay Tanner will be the leader going into the next federal election.
- Former "which bank" employee Ralph Norris, former head of the bank's operations in New Zealand, will be appointed CEO of the Commonwealth Bank to replace retiring David Murray.
- Schapelle Corby will be released, eventually, probably about 2007 - 2008, due to diplomacy, politics and behind the scene support by Australian agencies for Indonesia's economic, and social plight, and of course compensating Australia for its part in the drug busts on the Bali nine, handed to them by the AFP, and further drug charges against others. It just takes time for the slow Indonesian politician to grasp that they are mall fry in the region. The public attention has to die down and the wheels of commerce and corruption have to be greased. This may take five years it may take ten.
Corby has to play the Indonesian game according to their rules, such as they are. The appeal processes in Indonesia border on high farce, and theatrics, with celebrity lawyers and soap television stars. If she, and her Australian supporters, continue with the theatrics then she gets to stay in Bali for a very long time. The court may reinstate her original sentence. When it goes quiet, and she has been suitably chastised, some arrangement will be made. - There will be a full exposure of the performance of the Australian Immigration Department. John Howard will be confronted with a liberal revolt, as the guardians of the party react to the degrading of liberal values, which will expand to engulf his leadership opening the way for Peter Costello. For this reason the private member's bill put forward by Petro Georgiou will succeed in bringing the Prime Minister to the bargaining table. Petro, and the supporters of change, will prevail over Howard, Vanstone and Ruddock.
- The Minister Assisting the Minister for Immigration, the Honourable Peter McGauran, will leave his immigration portfolio to take up a new portfolio after John Anderson resigns. This will likely be Transport and Regional Development although other options may be Agriculture, given his farming roots. There will be a reshuffle of Departmental Secretaries. The Honourable Senator, and Minister, Amanda Vanstone will eventually be given another portfolio, though her continued performance in the ones she has held to date should not qualify, and may not do so, for any future inner cabinet roles. Unfairly she takes the flack from enquiries for Philip Ruddock's legacy of culture change in the department and for the omissions of the Foreign Affairs and Justice Ministries who knew that Alvarez was illegally deported as far back as 2003 and did nothing. A guard at Baxter detention centre told DIMIA that Cornelia Rau was probably Australian, and the Department, and ministries, let her stay there.
- I was wrong in my prediction that Mark Vaile and Peter McGauran would take over the leadership of the National Party
when John Anderson decided to retire. The Deputy leader position went to Warren Truss. However there is a longer-term view in play. Warren Truss is not, on the evidence, a performer and not the best
choice for melding agricultural and farming interests back into the party. He will have to relinquish this portfolio because he cannot handle the demands of Deputy and Agriculture. Trade will be his nemesis. Peter McGauran will get the leadership in 2007 if not in late 2006.
The FTA and Telstra privatisation will prove a far too complex, and dangerous, ground for Mark Vaile and Warren Truss. Telstra is not worth $33 billion as indicated in the budget and parroted by the media. It is not worth $25 billion and may fetch much less than anticipated. The government says that it won't have a fire sale, well that is their only option. Barnaby Joyce may well give ground in return for money and say that is how he represents his state in the Senate under the Constitution. Warren Truss and Mark Vaile have to look towards the resurgence of the National Party and its draw cards. This will necessitate Vaile surrendering the trade portfolio elevating Warren Truss to the role. McGauran is far more skilled at this and it is incongruous that the party has not demonstrated an awareness of the limitations posed by the Vaile/Truss leadership. Truss will ultimately prove the error of their choice and McGauran will assume the Deputy role over time. Perhaps Truss is being temporarily rewarded by the party? - South Australia will win the head contract for the new defence ships defeating Victoria, due to that latter state's poor quality governance, unreliability and industrial record and behind the scenes influences. {Premier Steve Bracks will bleat that it is a federal government set up refusing to admit that he runs a second rate show in Victoria. Business confidence in Victoria will be the lowest in Australia and additionally South Australia has secured an industrial accord with the unions guaranteeing productivity in its manufacturing industries. Victoria's loud bid managed by Premier Steve Bracks, and his league of deluded egos, will lose, but they will not go graciously.
- A nuclear power station will be planned for construction on the NSW, South Australia and Victorian borders and the uranium debate will split the labor party machine.
Federal Minister MacFarlane, and state Premiers Rann and Carr, might find a new cooperation, what will Bracks do? He will have no idea and will rely upon someone else to tell him. Steve Bracks will be exposed in this session of his Premiership for reliance on
an archaic notion of the role of government. Victoria's business confidence will slide, the Commonwealth games will present him with many political surprises, as will the redevelopment of the Spencer Street station.
John Brumby's, and the political aspirations of others will end Bracks' political leadership in 2006 - 2007. The state government will suffer a backlash on its arrogant approach to human relations and employment evidenced in its treatment of the teacher at Orbost in Victoria, toll turn around, poor transport planning and decline in services such as mental health, education and over burdensome, greedy taxation policies.
Bracks will be forced to recant his actions and justifications for destroying peoples' careers, and livelihood, for political self interest and promotion.
Meanwhile Queensland will push their play in the so-called national electricity market with cogeneration and cross border marketing strategies. The building of a transmission line of capacity between Queensland NSW will become an imperative. There is only one place to go outside of Queensland, to develop revenue, and that is into NSW. Why would Queensland interests not also broaden their strategy nationally, operating cogeneration plant on behalf of customers everywhere and selling products into the developing electricity market? Beattie is wedded to the coal industry and cannot address environmental considerations nor the uranium debate. - If Peter Costello takes the Prime Minister role six months to a year before the next federal election, Labor will not win another federal election until after 2010.
- Slow internet speed, and service, in rural Australia is a deliberate technical and economic decision of Telstra and the government could fix the issue but has an agenda to maximise the sell value of the telco.
- The balance of 51% of Telstra, when sold, will not reach $30 billion. Why? The maintenance systems and supporting assets (such as telepower supply systems and equipment) that keep the exchanges going are not all that flash and Telstra's been saving money and gambling on risk and their ability to assess it accurately. Reliability issues might arise out of any real third party analysis, and due diligence, conducted by potential and serious buyers. If the little shareholders act on advice of the brokers and push the price they may fulfill the government's budget dream, however it is likely that they may find that their shares, at some later date, when Telstra's international competitors come to play, are not as valuable as they thought.
- Telstra services will be blacked out, unexpectedly, in different areas of Australia, due to failure of power supply backup systems and poor or little investment in infrastructure.
- The federal government will propose a national human resources talent harnessing strategy and will demand that employers and recruiters change their myopic and discriminatory attitudes. False and misrepresentative employment advertisements placed by recruitment agencies and employers will come under the eye of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission
- Substandard employment selection and
talent harnessing systems - A recruiter told me that he had 12 years experience and he only ever applied 30 - 40 seconds to reading a resume. This is an indictment of the general industry level of attention given to a decision that impacts the applicant and the employer. There will be a shakeout in the recruitment industry, in the next 12-18 months, due to the excessive number of firms, diversity of quality and customer service and methodologies, and moves by HR divisions to take services in house to control process, costs and protect their turf.
- The federal government will launch education campaigns to change the culture of employment practices, seeking to broaden criteria, and advertised experience beyond a particular industry, to stop cannibalism of industry by simply moving people around same industry sectors, to cross pollinate and grow expertise and to harness the full talent of the nation.
- There will be a challenge to the excessive, and damaging protectionist activities and assertions by professional associations, who demand that only their respective discipline, and members, are effective performers in specified employment. For example in the UK, a biologist, chemist, computer programmer etc. may be employed in a bank, finance industry or other business working alongside qualified accountants and auditors, whereas in Australia these roles are the reserve of `accountants' and 'CPA's', engineers, doctors, lawyers and the core associations are merely trade unions in disguise.
- Registered training organisations will begin to collapse across Australia, in late 2005 and into 2006, due to a crowded market and a rising aversion to the dumbing down of training curricula, a move away from simplistic competency to deeper learning, the impact of Free Trade Agreements, a reaction to the minimal qualifications of the providers, their capacity to deliver and concentrated competition from academically qualified institutions.
- Rather than focus on the practice of imbuing performance, attention to quality management, practices and accountability, many governments, institutions and corporations, employ spin doctors and crisis, issue management consultants and tactics, to mask their failures and protect their positions.
- What are the expectations of the Qantas Board regarding the performance of the organisation's security management and division? What are we to think about the inconsistencies of statements as to Qantas' management knowledge of baggage handlers' involvement in drugs? Was it that Geoffrey Askew, head of security, knew about it but could not act because Qantas was involved in a covert police operation or is it that the Qantas security management and division failed to do its job? Mr. Askew's days with Qantas are numbered.
- Some may think, and well argue, that many segments of Australia's governments, and board rooms, run on rhetoric and outmoded thinking, action and management practices. There is data that indicates that politics and boardrooms are dominated by a small number of conservative, males. There is no national consensus, or plan, to harness and utilise Australia's broad talent base and many people are unemployed or under employed. The most common strategy used by government and business to achieve profit objectives is to shed staff. There is some foundation in the proposition that Australia's human resources are treated as `fodder' rather than as productive assets.
- The push for generic manufacturing in place of brands, by the two large retailers, Woolworth's and Coles Myer, will come to the attention of regulators. The Australian Productivity Commission will be asked to carry out an analysis of the social and economic impacts of generics in the light of the effects in the USA, of the Wal Mart chain use of its market power and the replacement of US made goods with cheap imported products. Australian brand manufacturers will rally against the market power of the retail chain giants of Australia. Coles Myer is under attack and being singled out as bad guy in the market power game. They may have to focus and sell off some of their assets. It is a superhuman effort to run them. Additionally the government may well limit how many outlets a company can own in a market segment to introduce real and diverse competition.
- The government's initiative regarding Technical Colleges will fail to materialise by middle of 2006 due to the apathy of industry and the poorly constructed model developed by the Department of Education, Science and Training and the Ministry advisers.. Accordingly I wrote to Minister Gary Hargreaves and copied federal Ministers, including Peter McGauran. I met with the latter to discuss my views. The government begs to differ. Oh well another few million down the drain.
Older applicants are discriminated against in interview and assessments by inexperienced who exhibit a lack of awareness, and seem oblivious, to the background of the industry, history and the relevancy of other material factors that might inform their deliberations. Is industry knowledge relevant? It is when a mid- twenties recruitment consultant thinks that NSW electricity is produced by nuclear power stations at Lucas Heights and other places and is interviewing looking for people with nuclear background to work in what are really thermal coal and gas power stations.
About governments, corporations, people and events, research and ideas |
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I'm "King Corporate",
top of the food chain and bored with all of this public interest nonsense and triple bottom line accounting.
It's about the economy stupid!I've got a question for you: Is it true that Coca Cola Amatil pays $A1.43 per million litres of water drawn from the Peats Ridge acquifer and bottles it to sell at the prices we all see in supermarkets? Now that is good business, turn a valuable public asset into an even more valuable private asset and sell it back to the people who owned it in the first place. Poor local Gosford Council (NSW) fears citizens will not have enough water for community if CC takes more out of Peats Ridge Aquifer near Gosford in NSW, Australia but Bob Carr's labor state government, demonstrates who's in charge, and over rides the council, to give Coca Cola Amatil its water, at this bargain price, and off to court the rate payers have to go. Other big business has come to play in the region and upset the residents and farmers. Who is it that elected government's represent? Real people who vote, or corporations that do not? Bob Carr, Premier of NSW, may give us the answer. |
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Nobody likes me, everybody hates me, think I'll go and eat worms.A trust survey found that the Australian Minister for Immigration, the Honourable Senator Amanda Vanstone, is the least trusted of a number of high profile celebrities.
Is it fair that Senator Vanstone (July, 2005) is bearing the heat, and cleaning up the mess, generated by the previous Minister for Immigration Philip Ruddock who, with his political advisers, and departmental staff, so assiduously laid the foundation, of the corrosion of Australia's public service and the nation's humanity and soul reflected in the culture, and actions, of this department? This poison chalice will spell the end of many an illustrious career in politics and public service but the trend is that those loyal to the government's agenda will be rewarded.
I'm with
Immigration
and a player in the War On Terror, give me a click, before I take a big fall from grace and power because I think I've accidentally bitten myself.
Check out the competition
Go to the corporation as person web site
Will the Australian, British and United States governments be surprised when ultimately the government of Iraq falls under the influence of Iran?
I do academic research hereand look at libraries, museums, galleries and collection spaces here
Australia, an autocracy masquerading as democracy achieving new middles in mediocrity
Australian Prime Minister and Ministers demonstrate daily, an apparent lack of leadership standards. Where is the defined, and demonstrated, moral, ethical quality, for the Australian public service, and community at large, to value and replicate? This explains how in the above survey politicians ranked in the very last category of trusted professions, behind `car salesman'. It is not about a career in public service, it is about a career in "power and politics". Public interest went out the window when politics became a career choice rather than the benevolent contribution of the civic minded.
and the Prime Minister's unique standards of performance appraisal, and standards, of behaviour for Ministers became the accepted norm. How many accumulated lies, manipulations, falsifications, omissions and failures disqualify people from being a Minister of the Crown? In the case of the Australian government, it is an infinite number.
Women of different status under Australian government policy: Single mothers must, when their children turn six years old, get a job and will have their welfare benefits cut. On the other hand a married woman, living with a spouse who earns, may stay home and receive government benefits.
The standard response of the Prime Minister, and Ministers, on any issue - "I wasn't told", "It's not my fault", "They are wrong, you are wrong", "I have full confidence in my minister".
The federal government minister, who on the advice of the Immigration Department, orders the deportation of long term resident East Timorese, accusing them of possessing `serious character flaws'.
Branding people seeking asylum as "queue jumpers" and "illegals" when they are neither and then incarcerating them, Australian citizens, and residents, deporting people on the most rudimentary justifications. All of this is carried out under the jurisdiction of successive Ministers, and government servants, who it could be argued, themselves possess 'serious character flaws' in performing their task with care and diligence.
Steve Bracks, Premier of Victoria, demonstrates his personal qualities of leadership by supporting the sacking of a thirty two year old teacher whose crime was that he had a fifteen, nearly sixteen, year old girl friend when he was nineteen years of age. The man's career has been taken from him on the spurious grounds of political interest dressed up as public interest.
Lacking a moral compass?
Australia's mediocre governments
This is where you find the thinkers
Read about: Blather and Australian Labor's delusion as to who they represent
I'm in charge of
Archive of Past Features,
if you don't read them I don't get fed.The tsunami in Asia has provided a wonderful opportunity "that has paid dividends for us" (Condoleeza Rice) |
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to predict social, economic and political outcomes in Australia. I distill complex and varied information and anticipate. Click to go to archived 2000 - 2005 prediction site  
Privacy Statement, Uses and Motivation |
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Experts
are everywhere. Governments and corporations use them, the media,
public and private entities. They inhabit universities.
They inhabit disciplines.
Philip Tetlock,
a psychologist with a Phd from Yale has spent much of his time at the
Universities of California, Berkely Ohio. What makes him unique in the world of academic research is that he produced a seminal and intensive study of the
world of
experts
of all types, and assessed whether they are any better at their activity than a novice such as me (KEVINRBECK).
Philip has published his research in "Expert Political Judgement: How good is it? How can we know? (Princeton University Press).
His research translates to any society and this case I have compared it to how things work in Australia. The Australian Financial Review published an excellent synopsis (Friday 25 November, 2005, Review 3) of his research in an article written by Paul Monk, who is co-founder of Austhink Consulting and author of "Thunder from the silent zone: rethinking China". Tetlock's work can be applied to the unflinching claims of the Howard government for its Workplace Relations Reforms, justification of war in Iraq, economic policy, investment in R&D and other pet projects and its ideological pursuit of dross. Similarly it can be used to debunk economic forecasts, political analysis and a host of other "crystal ball" style pronouncements that are used to sell services, dress up stories and drive home points. The research exposes the human tendency to rely on an expert, particularly one with a job that suits and a title to go without. The history of their performance and other traits are never considered nor remembered. He says that "experts are attempting to do with confidence what they demonstrably cannot do very well at all. They make lots of money and kudos from dubious forecasts without ultimate accountability. They are well suited to being politicians particularly Ministers in Australia's governments and consultants and advisers in Australia's top tier companies and public sector enterprises. They are partisan, rarely admit error or they will give a dozen explanations as to how they got it wrong. Governments, shareholders and businesses lose billions year after year but continue to draw on their services. Monk quotes Tetlock, "we keep running into ideological impasses rooted in each side insisting on being the only judge of its own beliefs and forecasts". Does that have resonance, or sound familiar, in your workplace, communities, in political rhetoric and justification, on television and everywhere? Tetlock found that experts on their home turf made neither better-calibrated nor more discriminating forecasts than did dilettante trespassers. Monk says that Telock found that it made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience in their chosen line of work. There was no correlation between ideology and accuracy of judgement or precision of forecasting. The experts tended not to adjust their beliefs when the evidence came in but to rationalise or outright deny their errors. Is that familiar too? Seems our politicians have this gene. The dominant danger he concluded was hubris closed mindedness, dismissing dissonant possibilities too quickly. Resistance is fierce particularly from those with grand reputations but humble track records. Tetlock did find that exacting research using scientific and other proven techniques based on solid empirical evidence and statistical analysis and checking, using large volumes of data and input over time did impact on the accuracy and quality. This is the intrinsic objective of the design of the Mosaic Portal. |
| AMERICAN MONITOR. SOCIETY, POLITICS, GOVERNMENT AND ECONOMY
AND THE KEVINRBECK MOSAIC PORTAL ON DELPHIFORUMS |
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Every day the tools of the Mosaic Portal trawl the web, searching for pieces in the jigsaw of this gowing affliction.
The owner Kevin R Beck, and colleagues, in a network of diversity,
interact, and meet. with people across the Australian spectrum and internationally too. 
... The ability to predict is the realm of
the Futurist