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It is not about how many people visit my sites it is about how many communications are going out and to where.  Contact |
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It is not about how many people visit my sites it is about how many communications are going out and to where. Contact |
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With Kevin Rudd being removed as Prime Minister, by his own party members, this site is archived.  For the current Gillard's Australia site Click Here Kevin Rudd, the least smart person in the government. In the hot bed of Canberra politics there are few ways for Australia's public servants to realise that they are respected and well thought of. Modern politics has relegated the public servant, to servant of the government, politicising them. During the time of Kevin Rudd they were truly muzzled and made to feel worthless questioing their own capabilities. It was not until the media and the bloggers and commentators on the web began to question Kevin Rudd's abilities that their plight was exposed. Kevin Rudd was not talented Prime Minister. His arrogant assumption that he might be the smatest guy in the room demonstrated a lack of awareness. The propensity to humiliate people ultimately lead to his own downfall. He may well be bitter but who cares. He was ignorant as were his minions. I had the pleasure of meeting one of them. Instead of a senior member of Rudd's staff meeting me I had to endure a kid lecturing me about technology and public policy. Kevin Rudd and his coterie were oblivious to thefact that they were always destined to be politically annihilated once they antagonised too many tactically astute, and well resourced, people. They had at their disposal government but had no idea what to do with it. (Kevin R Beck, Melbourne) |
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Going going gone, was the headline I used in the Australian politics web site owned by Kevin R Beck. It referred to Mr. Kevin Rudd. It was posted fourteen days before the coup. I have access to a psychological tool that can use a focus group of handful of carefully chosen people to determine if a sitting politician will hold their seat or if a candidate will win. |
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June 2010, watching the commentary on the demise of Kevin Rudd as leader of the labor party in government in Australia I noted the rush, by the commentators, to get on board and offer opinions and rationale. Perhaps one of the most common refrains from the "insider elite" is " no one knew" or "who could tell?" and "no one predicted this". Readers of this web site would know that someone definitely did klnow, and predict, the outcome. Similarly the economic watchers were caught flat footed, and out of the loop, on the global financial crisis, again justifying their lack of intuition by being part of the ignorant pack that claimed that it was not possible to predict. They simply did not know. Therefore generally the rest of us would not know. That also is not true. These are the things I do amongst others, assessing, analysing, predicting and implementing. Politicians, political parties, government agencies, businesses, and corporations, could save a lot of money by reading, and studying, the content of my multiple topic web sites or by simply sounding me out in a conversation. There is a lot more to our arsenal of utilities and skills than blogging and commentary on the internet. Soon I will begin to examine Australia, through the eyes and mind, of the Prime Minister Julia Gillard. (Kevin R Beck, Melbourne Australia, Australian Politics and Governmments |
This is the Mosaic Portal If you want current news and hot topics keep scrolling down till you find what interests you. With the compliments of Kevin R Beck, Melbourne Australia 
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From the creative mind of Kevin R Beck - click |
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A SITE WITHIN THE KEVIN R BECK CREATED MOSAIC PORTAL NETWORK CONCEPTED, DESIGNED, AND OWNED, BY Kevin R Beck, Melbourne Australia - Click |
Go to: My World, My Space 
 "Analytic, abstract thinking is ideal for reporting the regular, the expected, the normal, the ordinary, the unsurprising, the mundane, the things we often take so much for granted that we are hardly conscious that we know them at all. By contrast, narrative thinking, encapsulated in stories and storytelling, is ideally suited to discussing the exceptional. Narrative thrives on the disruptions from the ordinary, the unexpected, the conflicts, the deviations, the surprises, the unusual. Stories flourish in the overthrow of the existing order by some event or thought that changes our perspective." (Source: Steve Denning, Narrative versus Abstract Thinking, http://www.stevedenning.com/Business-Narrative/narrative-vs-abstract-thinking-Bruner.aspx) Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is much often criticised for his convoluted communication. His inability to explain his policies or point in easy understandable language and metaphors. Failing to simply tell a story with conviction. In Mr Rudd's world the things he thinks are normal, they are coimplex and he understands them. He tries to convey them to us as if he is transferring a file of bits and bytes. Added to his complexity is the tone, the patronising slow manner in whihc he dlivers so that we may keep up. Th ebody language, and the image signals that serve to distance him from his audience. This is a significant problem for the Prime Minister. One which may in the end cause his fall from popularity to mockery. It is not that abnormal for the CEO to believe they are good communicators. Their challenge is to be able to master the art and to avoid using a spin doctor. (Kevin Beck, Melboure, Australia) |
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It is not clear to me how the Victorian Police Minister Bob Cameron retains his Ministerial portfolio and why the government lead by John Brumby shows no remorse or shame for its dereliction and in some cases corruption of Victoria's governance. (June 2010: Kevin R Beck)
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Click on image
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Click on image
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 Sociology, tools for interpreting, and testing, spin speak |
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 Watching Kevin Rudd come and go |
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Despite having presided over destruction, and death, through incompetence, the senior bureaucrats remain in their roles. The Chief Commissioner of Police appeared in the Victorian Bush Fire Royal Commission and opined that the whole exercise was about words and their interpretation - "command and control", detached from the reality and accountability of a cavalcade of witless testimony. This is the detached ignorance of basic reality and human concepts. It is a bureaurcatic piece of mumbo jumbo, tripe. Such displays of cerebral distemper, as are recorded, by the Royal Commission, in the statements, and cross examination, of the senior officers of agencies are an insult to the intelligence of the people within Victoria who care about the quality of their government and public service. Why John Brumby would even think that their empty words were of merit and their gobbly gook credible is beyond my comprehension. Why he is the Premier is also beyond my comprehension. Mr Brumby, and the Ministers who were, and are still, in charge of emergency services, should have resigned soon after this disaster. Political parasites, spin doctors and party apparatchiks, without conscience, ethics, integrity and morals, infest the state governments across the Australian nation.    |
cartoon by courtesy of Nicholson |
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My web world is your world |
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The electorate lacks the education, awareness and the cognitive skills to understand, distill complex matters and arguments, They have no interest in demanding, or particpating and interacting, to ensure, quality government, ethical practice and performance from their elected officials at local, state, territory or federal government levels. Sadly the politicians in power, in Australia, in this modern age (2009)are not likely to alter the status quo that delivers, and maintains, the power of public office. The electorate is powerless to deal with underperfrming public services. Queensland presents a constant model of decay in public office emulated by other states, and territories, within Australia. (Kevin R Beck) |
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By the parasites of Australian democracy and politics |
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Want to communicate a response, and article, retort or alternative view, and have it posted to this web site and others on the Mosaic Portal network of web sites?
Click here
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IMPORTANT
every portal page uses scripting to update content.
So turn your active content on.
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"We'd all like to vote for the best man but he is never a candidate." (Kin Hubbard, US comedian)
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| Mass distribution articles - 300+ sites |
Predictions Economy, Society and Events |
About the Owner and Author |
Definition of an Expert |
| Governments, and corporations, are spending billions to mislead, misinform,
corrode, corrupt and manipulate the world in which they operate. There are people across the globe using technology tools, human networks and strategies to try and counter these activities albeit in a small way.
They are oft dismissed .
Take an interest in your governments, demand accountability, choose who you will do business with and what products and services you will buy.
Demand that enterprises such as banks, and large
powerful corporations, be good citizens rather than
self serving interested enterprises. Challenge the media, the public relations and spin doctors, on their own turf. challenge your governments, politicians and public servants. Build communities of interests, technological and human.
Wikileaks - a global source of information kept from the people of the world Beyond the horizon sits the Shadow Server |
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Who runs Australia?
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Oils and Acrylics on Canvas |
Heartland Retreat, is one hour from the Maroochydore Airport on the Queensland Sunshine Coast. |
 
Heartland Retreat Queensland Australia  Les Dyer's Inspiration |
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| PREDICTIONS THAT BIT, AND WILL BITE THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENTS, BUSINESS AND THE NATION INTO 2010 Insights, intuition, predictions and analysis, predicted as early as 2007, by Kevin R Beck In the latter part of 2008, and early in 2009, Kevin R Beck wrote in the web sites of the Mosaic Portal that there would be a number of events that would curb the government's plans and actions. Among the many predictopns made in September 2008 were that in 2009 the Australian budget would come under severe stress, growth would plummet to the negative, a major Australian financial institution will stumble in 2009, paid maternity leave will be a dream of a future Australia, a proposal to raise the Goods and Services Tax will emerge in 2009 there will be mortgage defaults, and a dramatic down turn in China's economy and demand.accurately predicted the financial devastation. |
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| What, in the absence of their created intelligence gathering, a set of vehicles, information sourcesa nd strategies, were created to link things - to link their performnace, their objectives and their activities? What if the whole of the Australian government/s were being monitored, assessed and filtered? Is this possible using modern technologies? What if not only governments, and Ministers, were the objects of the technology and utilities but also individual members ofm parlaiensta nd of the bureaucracries? What if the motivation is to compete or create barriers, to actively be a participant in the political arena? Some very senior, and quite outspoken members, of state and federal parliaments once told me if I wanted to play in politics I should join a party and run for parliament. How does one do that when the participation is rigged and the allocation of preselection is by patronage? Then having got there to be back bencher doing as one is told, adding to the corrosion of parliament and democracy. Given that someone turned their attention to this challenging task, and spent the money and the time to do all of the above, what might it look like as a piece of technology and a disparate but interlinked set of utilities and tools.? |
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The distribution is targeted to a particular audience through direct email lists. Distribution is at individual, regional, state, national or international by country and is not limited to Australia. Effective political, and citizen, activism is one where issues and interaction are under pinned by a complex a proactive and comprehensive strategy. It is a strategy that can, over time, demonstrate a capacity to influence and/or frustrate selected agendas, activities, policies and initiatives, of the power collective. This is not acknowledged because the degree of investigation, and intelligence gathering, carried out by Australian media, by public servants and corporate employees is not sophisticated or deep. I would hazard that if you are asked key managers to name stakeholdesr and/or competitors they would demonstrate a very narrow perspective and awareness. |
Services - Professional Managers and Associates Australia |
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| Experts are everywhere. Governments and corporations use them, the media, public and private entities. They inhabit universities. They inhabit disciplines. There are a number of prime experts that are driving government policy, thinking and response. Governmment economists (in Treasury and in Finance and Administration) and theorists engaged in climate change and carbon trading. So are they really expert? If we look at how many actually accurately predict outcomes, such as the financial services meltdown of 2008, and the property and finance and banking crsahes, one might doubt their expertise. Yet they never seem to go away. Is this because they are part of a club that ignores the fallacies, and oversights or incompetence, of its membership? Philip Tetlock, a psychologist with a Phd from Yale has spent much of his time at the Universities of California, Berkely and Ohio. What makes him unique in the world of academic research is that he has produced a seminal and intensive study of the world of experts, of all types, and assessed whether they are any better at their activity than a novice such as me (KEVINRBECK). Philip has published his research in "Expert Political Judgement: How good is it? How can we know? (Princeton University Press). His research translates to any society and this case I have compared it to how things work in Australia. The Australian Financial Review published an excellent synopsis (Friday 25 November, 2005, Review 3) of his research in an article written by Paul Monk, who is co-founder of Austhink Consulting and author of "Thunder from the silent zone: rethinking China". Tetlock's work can be applied to the unflinching claims of the Howard government for its Workplace Relations Reforms, justification of war in Iraq, economic policy, investment in R&D and other pet projects and its ideological pursuit of dross. Similarly it can be used to debunk economic forecasts, political analysis and a host of other "crystal ball" style pronouncements that are used to sell services, dress up stories and drive home points. The research exposes the human tendency to rely on an expert, particularly one with a job that suits and a title to go without. The history of their performance and other traits are never considered nor remembered. He says that "experts are attempting to do with confidence what they demonstrably cannot do very well at all. They make lots of money and cudos from dubious forecasts without ultimate accountability. They are well suited to being politicians particularly Ministers in Australia's governments and consultants and advisers in Australia's top tier companies and public sector enterprises. They are partisan, rarely admit error or they will give a dozen explanations as to how they got it wrong. Governments, shareholders and businesses lose billions year after year but continue to draw on their services. Monk quotes Tetlock, "we keep running into ideological impasses rooted in each side insisting on being the only judge of its own beliefs and forecasts". Does that have resonance, or sound familiar, in your workplace, communities, in political rhetoric and justification, on television and everywhere? Tetlock found that experts on their home turf made neither better-calibrated nor more discriminating forecasts than did dilettante trespassers. Monk says that Telock found that it made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience in their chosen line of work. There was no correlation between ideology and accuracy of judgement or precision of forecasting. The experts tended not to adjust their beliefs when the evidence came in but to rationalise or outright deny their errors. Is that familiar too? Seems our politicians have this gene. The dominant danger he concluded was hubris closed mindedness, dismissing dissonant possibilities too quickly. Resistance is fierce particularly from those with grand reputations but humble track records. Tetlock did find that exacting research using scientific and other proven techniques based on solid empirical evidence, statistical analysis and checking, using large volumes of data and input over time did impact on the accuracy and quality. This is the intrinsic objective of the design of the Mosaic Portal. With these tools, perhaps I can predict the future? |
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Homeless International
Rebecca's Community in Australia
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